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The extending record of ocean colour derived information, an important asset for the study of marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry, presently relies on individual satellite missions launched by several space agencies with differences in sensor design, calibration strategies and algorithms. In this study we present an extensive comparative analysis of standard products obtained from operational global ocean colour sensors (SeaWiFS, MERIS, MODIS-Aqua, MODIS-Terra), on both global and regional scales. The analysis is based on monthly mean chlorophyll a (Chl-a) sea surface concentration between 2002 and 2009. Based on global statistics, the Chl-a records appear relatively consistent. The root mean square (RMS) difference Δ between (log-transformed) Chl-a from SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua amounts to 0.137, with a bias of 0.074 (SeaWiFS Chl-a higher). The difference between these two products and MERIS Chl-a is approximately 0.15. Restricting the analysis to 2007 only, Δ between MODIS Aqua and Terra is 0.142. This global convergence is significantly modulated regionally. Statistics for biogeographic provinces representing a partition of the global ocean, show Δ values varying between 0.08 and 0.3. High latitude regions, as well as coastal and shelf provinces are generally the areas with the largest differences. Moreover, RMS differences and biases are modulated in time, with a coefficient of variation of Δ varying between 10% and 40%, with clear seasonal patterns in some provinces. The comparison of the province-averaged time series obtained from the various satellite products also shows a level of agreement that is geographically variable. Overall, the Chl-a SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua series appear to have similar levels of variance and display high correlation coefficients, an agreement likely favoured by the common elements shared by the two missions. These results are degraded if the MERIS series is compared to either SeaWiFS or MODIS Aqua. An important outcome of the study is that the results of the inter-comparison analysis are variable with time and location, and therefore globally averaged statistics are not necessarily applicable on a seasonal or regional basis.

First results of a coupled modelling and forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically, fundamentally different model subsystems coupled offline: POLCOMS providing the physical environment implemented in the domain of the north-west European shelf, the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea, and the third component, the SLAM model, which connects POLCOMS and SPAM by computing the physical–biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the basis of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin-scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeel stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, even though periodic overfishing seems to have occurred, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock inherent dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

The flow of warm and saline water from the Atlantic Ocean, across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, into the Nordic Seas – the Atlantic inflow – is split into three separate branches. The most intense of these branches is the inflow between Iceland and the Faroe Islands (Faroes), which is focused into the Faroe Current, north of the Faroes. The Atlantic inflow is an integral part of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC), which is projected to weaken during the 21st century and might conceivably reduce the oceanic heat and salt transports towards the Arctic. Since the mid-1990s, hydrographic properties and current velocities of the Faroe Current have been monitored along a section extending north from the Faroe shelf. From these in situ observations, time series of volume, heat, and salt transport have previously been reported, but the high variability of the transport has made it difficult to establish whether there are trends. Here, we present results from a new analysis of the Faroe Current where the in situ observations have been combined with satellite altimetry. For the period 1993 to 2013, we find the average volume transport of Atlantic water in the Faroe Current to be 3.8 ± 0.5 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) with a heat transport relative to 0 °C of 124 ± 15 TW (1 TW = 1012 W). Consistent with other results for the Northeast Atlantic component of the THC, we find no indication of weakening. The transports of the Faroe Current, on the contrary, increased. The overall increase over the 2 decades of observation was 9 ± 8 % for volume transport and 18 ± 9 % for heat transport (95 % confidence intervals). During the same period, the salt transport relative to the salinity of the deep Faroe Bank Channel overflow (34.93) more than doubled, potentially strengthening the feedback on thermohaline intensity. The increased heat and salt transports are partly caused by the increased volume transport and partly by increased temperatures and salinities of the Atlantic inflow, which have been claimed mainly to be caused by the weakened subpolar gyre.

We develop and implement a new method to take into account the impact of waves into the 3-D circulation model SYMPHONIE (Marsaleix et al., 2008, 2009a) following the simplified equations of Bennis et al. (2011) which use glm2z-RANS theory (Ardhuin et al., 2008c). These adiabatic equations are completed by additional parameterizations of wave breaking, bottom friction and wave-enhanced vertical mixing, making the forcing valid from the surf zone through to the open ocean. The wave forcing is performed by wave generation and propagation models WAVEWATCH III® (Tolman, 2008, 2009; Ardhuin et al., 2010) and SWAN (Booij et al., 1999). The model is tested and compared with other models for a plane beach test case, previously tested by Haas and Warner (2009)and Uchiyama et al. (2010). A comparison is also made with the laboratory measurements of Haller et al. (2002) of a barred beach with channels. Results fit with previous simulations performed by other models and with available observational data. Finally, a realistic case is simulated with energetic waves travelling over a coast of the Gulf of Lion (in the northwest of the Mediterranean Sea) for which currents are available at different depths as well as an accurate bathymetric database of the 0–10 m depth range. A grid nesting approach is used to account for the different forcings acting at different spatial scales. The simulation coupling the effects of waves and currents is successful to reproduce the powerful northward littoral drift in the 0–15 m depth zone. More precisely, two distinct cases are identified: When waves have a normal angle of incidence with the coast, they are responsible for complex circulation cells and rip currents in the surf zone, and when they travel obliquely, they generate a northward littoral drift. These features are more complicated than in the test cases, due to the complex bathymetry and the consideration of wind and non-stationary processes. Wave impacts in the inner shelf are less visible since wind and regional circulation seem to be the predominant forcings. Besides, a discrepancy between model and observations is noted at that scale, possibly linked to an underestimation of the wind stress. This three-dimensional method allows a good representation of vertical current profiles and permits the calculation of the shear stress associated with waves and currents. Future work will focus on the combination with a sediment transport model.

Mesoscale variability in the central Rockall Trough, immediately west of the British Isles, has been investigated using a combination of ship-borne, underwater glider and gridded satellite altimeter measurements. Altimeter observations show that eddies and large-scale circulation cells are ubiquitous phenomena. They have horizontal length scales of order 100 km with vertical scales of over 1000 m and are associated with mean current speeds (over the upper 1000 m) of 15 ± 7 cm s−1. Monthly area averaged surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) has substantial inter-annual variability, which at times can dominate a mean seasonal signal that varies from a maximum in May (74 cm2 s−2) to a minimum in October (52 cm2 s−2) and has increased gradually since 1992 at about 1.1 cm2 s−2 per year. This increase may be related to the retreat of the sub-polar gyre (SPG). A 5 month glider mission in the trough showed that the cyclonic component of EKE came from cold water features that are located over 1000 m below the surface. The surface currents from altimeters had similar magnitude to the drift currents averaged over 1000 m from the glider in the stratified autumn, but were half the deep water speed during late winter. Although the mesoscale features move in an apparent random manner, they seem to be constrained by submarine topography such as seamounts. Occasionally anti-cyclonic and cyclonic cells combine to cause a coherent westward deflection of the European slope current that warms the Rockall side of the trough. Such deflections contribute to the inter-annual variability in the observed temperature and salinity that are monitored in the upper 800 m of the trough. By combining glider and altimeter measurements it is shown that altimeter measurements fail to observe a 15 cm s−1 northward flowing slope current on the eastern side as well as a small persistent southward current on the western side. There is much to be gained from the synergy between satellite altimetry and in situ glider observations.

Microstructure measurements were collected using an autonomous freely rising profiler under a variety of different atmospheric forcing and sea states in the open ocean. Here, profiles of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate, ε, are compared with various proposed scalings. In the oceanic boundary layer, the depth dependence of ε was found to be largely consistent with that expected for a shear-driven wall layer. This is in contrast with many recent studies which suggest higher rates of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation in the near surface of the ocean. However, some dissipation profiles appeared to scale with the sum of the wind and swell generated Stokes shear with this scaling extending beyond the mixed layer depth. Integrating ε in the mixed layer yielded results that 1% of the wind power referenced to 10 m is being dissipated here.

A 20-year retrospective reanalysis of the ocean state in the Baltic Sea is constructed by assimilating available historical temperature and salinity profiles into an operational numerical model with three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method. To determine the accuracy of the reanalysis, the authors present a series of comparisons to independent observations on a monthly mean basis. In the reanalysis, temperature (T) and salinity (S) fit better with independent measurements than the free run at different depths. Overall, the mean biases of temperature and salinity for the 20 year period are reduced by 0.32 °C and 0.34 psu, respectively. Similarly, the mean root mean square error (RMSE) is decreased by 0.35 °C for temperature and 0.3 psu for salinity compared to the free run. The modeled sea surface temperature, which is mainly controlled by the weather forcing, shows the least improvements due to sparse in situ observations. Deep layers, on the other hand, witness significant and stable model error improvements. In particular, the salinity related to saline water intrusions into the Baltic Proper is largely improved in the reanalysis. The major inflow events such as in 1993 and 2003 are captured more accurately as the model salinity in the bottom layer is increased by 2–3 psu. Compared to independent sea level at 14 tide gauge stations, the correlation between model and observation is increased by 2%–5%, while the RMSE is generally reduced by 10 cm. It is found that the reduction of RMSE comes mainly from the reduction of mean bias. In addition, the changes in density induced by the assimilation of T/S contribute little to the barotropic transport in the shallow Danish Transition zone. The mixed layer depth exhibits strong seasonal variations in the Baltic Sea. The basin-averaged value is about 10 m in summer and 30 m in winter. By comparison, the assimilation induces a change of 20 m to the mixed layer depth in deep waters and wintertime, whereas small changes of about 2 m occur in summer and shallow waters. It is related to the strong heating in summer and the dominant role of the surface forcing in shallow water, which largely offset the effect of the assimilation.

Changes in both global and regional mean sea level, and changes in the magnitude of extreme flood heights, are the result of a combination of several distinct contributions most, but not all, of which are associated with climate change. These contributions include effects in the solid earth, gravity field, changes in ocean mass due to ice loss from ice sheets and glaciers, thermal expansion, alterations in ocean circulation driven by climate change and changing freshwater fluxes, and the intensity of storm surges. Due to the diverse range of models required to simulate these systems, the contributions to sea-level change have usually been discussed in isolation rather than in one self-consistent assessment. Focusing on the coastline of northwest Europe, we consider all the processes mentioned above and their relative impact on 21st century regional mean sea levels and the 50-year return flood height. As far as possible our projections of change are derived from process-based models forced by the A1B emissions scenario to provide a self-consistent comparison of the contributions. We address uncertainty by considering both a mid-range and an illustrative high-end combination of the different components. For our mid-range ice loss scenario we find that thermal expansion of seawater is the dominant contributor to change in northwest European sea level by 2100. However, the projected contribution to extreme sea level, due to changes in storminess alone, is in some places significant and comparable to the global mean contribution of thermal expansion. For example, under the A1B emissions scenario, by 2100, change in storminess contributes around 15 cm to the increase in projected height of the 50-year storm surge on the west coast of the Jutland Peninsula, compared with a contribution of around 22 cm due to thermal expansion and a total of 58 cm from all of the contributions we consider. An illustrative combination of our high-end projections suggests increases in the 50-year return level of 86 cm at Sheerness, 95 cm at Roscoff, 106 cm at Esbjerg, and 67cm at Bergen. The notable regional differences between these locations arise primarily from differences in the rates of vertical land movement and changes in storminess.

There is growing understanding that recent deterioration of the Black Sea ecosystem was partly due to changes in the marine physical environment. This study uses high resolution 0.25° climatology to analyze sea surface temperature variability over the 20th century in two contrasting regions of the sea. Results show that the deep Black Sea was cooling during the first three quarters of the century and was warming in the last 15–20 years; on aggregate there was a statistically significant cooling trend. The SST variability over the Western shelf was more volatile and it does not show statistically significant trends. The cooling of the deep Black Sea is at variance with the general trend in the North Atlantic and may be related to the decrease of westerly winds over the Black Sea, and a greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone. The timing of the changeover from cooling to warming coincides with the regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem.

Diel vertical migration (DVM) is a survival strategy adopted by zooplankton, that was investigated in the Corsica Channel using ADCP data, from April 2014 to November 2016. The principal aim of the study is to characterize migratory patterns and biomass temporal evolution along the water column. The ADCP measured vertical velocity and echo intensity in the water column range between about 70 m and 390 m (the bottom depth is 443 m). In addition, net samples were taken during summer 2015 at the same location. During the investigated period, biomass had a well-defined daily and seasonal cycle, with peaks occurring in late winter–spring, when the stratification of water column is weaker. Biomass evolution along the whole water column is well correlated with primary production estimated with satellite data. Blooming and no-blooming periods have been identified and studied separately. During the no-blooming period biomass was most abundant in the surface and the deep layers, while during the blooming period the surface maximum disappeared and the deep layer with high biomass became thicker. These two layers are likely to correspond to two different zooplanktonic communities. Nocturnal DVM appears to be the main pattern during both periods, but also reverse and twilight migration are detected. Nocturnal DVM was more evident at mid-water than near in the deep and the surface layers. DVM occurred with different intensities in blooming and no-blooming periods, and phenomena like nocturnal sinking were found to be stronger during the blooming period. One of the main outcomes is that the principal drivers for DVM are light intensity and stratification, but also others are taken in consideration.