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Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

This study examines the stable water isotope signal (δ18O) of three ice cores drilled on the Renland peninsula (East Greenland coast). While ice core δ18O measurements qualitatively are a measure of the local temperature history, the δ18O variability actually reflects the integrated hydrological activity that the deposited ice experienced from the evaporation source to the condensation site. Thus, as Renland is located next to a fluctuating sea ice cover, the transfer function used to infer past temperatures from the δ18O variability is potentially influenced by variations in the local moisture conditions. The objective of this study is therefore to evaluate the δ18O variability of ice cores drilled on Renland and examine what amount that can be attributed to regional temperature variations. In the analysis, three ice cores are utilized to create stacked summer, winter and annually averaged δ18O signals (AD 1801–2014). The imprint of temperature on δ18O is first examined by correlating the δ18O stacks with instrumental temperature records from East Greenland (AD 1895–2014) and Iceland (AD 1830–2014) and with the regional climate model HIRHAM5 (AD 1980–2014). The results show that the δ18O variability correlates with regional temperatures on both a seasonal and an annual scale between 1910–2014 while δ18O is uncorrelated with Iceland temperatures between 1830–1909. Our analysis indicates that the unstable regional δ18O-temperature correlation does not result from changes in weather patterns through respectively strengthening and weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Instead, the results imply that the varying δ18O-temperature relation is connected with the volume flux of sea ice exported through Fram Strait (and south along the coast of East Greenland). Notably, the δ18O variability only reflects the variations in regional temperature when the temperature anomaly is positive and the sea ice export anomaly is negative. It is hypothesized that this could be caused by a larger sea ice volume flux during cold years which suppresses the Iceland temperature signature in the Renland δ18O signal. However, more isotope-enabled modeling studies with emphasis on coastal ice caps are needed in order to quantify the mechanisms behind this observation. As the amount of Renland δ18O variability that reflects regional temperature varies with time, the results have implications for studies performing regression-based δ18O-temperature reconstructions based on ice cores drilled in the vicinity of a fluctuating sea ice cover.

Overview presentation of the AWI's AUV project PAUL3000 of the HGF-MPG bridge-group for deep-sea ecology and technology.

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