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Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

In permafrost areas, seasonal freeze-thaw cycles result in upward and downward movements of the ground. For some permafrost areas, long-term downward movements were reported during the last decade. We measured seasonal and multi-year ground movements in a yedoma region of the Lena River Delta, Siberia, in 2013–2017, using reference rods installed deep in the permafrost. The seasonal subsidence was 1.7 ± 1.5 cm in the cold summer of 2013 and 4.8 ± 2 cm in the warm summer of 2014. Furthermore, we measured a pronounced multi-year net subsidence of 9.3 ± 5.7 cm from spring 2013 to the end of summer 2017. Importantly, we observed a high spatial variability of subsidence of up to 6 cm across a sub-meter horizontal scale. In summer 2013, we accompanied our field measurements with Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) on repeat-pass TerraSAR-X (TSX) data from the summer of 2013 to detect summer thaw subsidence over the same study area. Interferometry was strongly affected by a fast phase coherence loss, atmospheric artifacts, and possibly the choice of reference point. A cumulative ground movement map, built from a continuous interferogram stack, did not reveal a subsidence on the upland but showed a distinct subsidence of up to 2 cm in most of the thermokarst basins. There, the spatial pattern of DInSAR-measured subsidence corresponded well with relative surface wetness identified with the near infra-red band of a high-resolution optical image. Our study suggests that (i) although X-band SAR has serious limitations for ground movement monitoring in permafrost landscapes, it can provide valuable information for specific environments like thermokarst basins, and (ii) due to the high sub-pixel spatial variability of ground movements, a validation scheme needs to be developed and implemented for future DInSAR studies in permafrost environments.

Coastal areas are impacted by multiple natural and anthropogenic processes and experience stronger pH fluctuations than the open ocean. These variations can weaken or intensify the ocean acidification signal induced by increasing atmospheric pCO2. The development of eutrophication-induced hypoxia intensifies coastal acidification, since the CO2 produced during respiration decreases the buffering capacity in any hypoxic bottom water. To assess the combined ecosystem impacts of acidification and hypoxia, we quantified the seasonal variation in pH and oxygen dynamics in the water column of a seasonally stratified coastal basin (Lake Grevelingen, the Netherlands). Monthly water-column chemistry measurements were complemented with estimates of primary production and respiration using O2 light–dark incubations, in addition to sediment–water fluxes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). The resulting data set was used to set up a proton budget on a seasonal scale. Temperature-induced seasonal stratification combined with a high community respiration was responsible for the depletion of oxygen in the bottom water in summer. The surface water showed strong seasonal variation in process rates (primary production, CO2 air–sea exchange), but relatively small seasonal pH fluctuations (0.46 units on the total hydrogen ion scale). In contrast, the bottom water showed less seasonality in biogeochemical rates (respiration, sediment–water exchange), but stronger pH fluctuations (0.60 units). This marked difference in pH dynamics could be attributed to a substantial reduction in the acid–base buffering capacity of the hypoxic bottom water in the summer period. Our results highlight the importance of acid–base buffering in the pH dynamics of coastal systems and illustrate the increasing vulnerability of hypoxic, CO2-rich waters to any acidifying process.

The development of phosphate sensors suitable for long-term in situ deployments in natural waters, is essential to improve our understanding of the distribution, fluxes, and biogeochemical role of this key nutrient in a changing ocean. Here, we describe the optimization of the molybdenum blue method for in situ work using a lab-on-chip (LOC) analyzer and evaluate its performance in the laboratory and at two contrasting field sites. The in situ performance of the LOC sensor is evaluated using hourly time-series data from a 56-day trial in Southampton Water (UK), as well as a month-long deployment in the subtropical oligotrophic waters of Kaneohe Bay (Hawaii, USA). In Kaneohe Bay, where phosphate concentrations were characteristic of the dry season (0.13 ± 0.03 μM, n = 704), the in situ sensor accuracy was 16 ± 12% and a potential diurnal cycle in phosphate concentrations was observed. In Southampton Water, the sensor data (1.02 ± 0.40 μM, n = 1,267) were accurate to ±0.10 μM relative to discrete reference samples. Hourly in situ monitoring revealed striking tidal and storm derived fluctuations in phosphate concentrations in Southampton Water that would not have been captured via discrete sampling. We show the impact of storms on phosphate concentrations in Southampton Water is modulated by the spring-neap tidal cycle and that the 10-fold decline in phosphate concentrations observed during the later stages of the deployment was consistent with the timing of a spring phytoplankton bloom in the English Channel. Under controlled laboratory conditions in a 250 L tank, the sensor demonstrated an accuracy and precision better than 10% irrespective of the salinity (0–30), turbidity (0–100 NTU), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentration (0–10mg/L), and temperature (5–20◦C) of the water (0.3–13 μM phosphate) being analyzed. This work demonstrates that the LOC technology is mature enough to quantify the influence of stochastic events on nutrient budgets and to elucidate the role of phosphate in regulating phytoplankton productivity and community composition in estuarine and coastal regimes. Refereed 14.A Nutrients TRL 8 Actual system completed and "mission qualified" through test and demonstration in an operational environment (ground or space) Manual (incl. handbook, guide, cookbook etc) Standard Operating Procedure

The mid-Pliocene is a valuable time interval for investigating equilibrium climate at current atmospheric CO2 concentrations because atmospheric CO2 concentrations are thought to have been comparable to the current day and yet the climate and distribution of ecosystems were quite different. One intriguing, but not fully understood, feature of the early to mid-Pliocene climate is the amplified Arctic temperature response and its impact on Arctic ecosystems. Only the most recent models appear to correctly estimate the degree of warming in the Pliocene Arctic and validation of the currently proposed feedbacks is limited by scarce terrestrial records of climate and environment. Here we reconstruct the summer temperature and fire regime from a subfossil fen-peat deposit on west–central Ellesmere Island, Canada, that has been chronologically constrained using cosmogenic nuclide burial dating to 3.9+1.5/-0.5 Ma. The estimate for average mean summer temperature is 15.4±0.8 ∘C using specific bacterial membrane lipids, i.e., branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers. This is above the proposed threshold that predicts a substantial increase in wildfire in the modern high latitudes. Macro-charcoal was present in all samples from this Pliocene section with notably higher charcoal concentration in the upper part of the sequence. This change in charcoal was synchronous with a change in vegetation that included an increase in abundance of fire-promoting Pinus and Picea. Paleo-vegetation reconstructions are consistent with warm summer temperatures, relatively low summer precipitation and an incidence of fire comparable to fire-adapted boreal forests of North America and central Siberia. To our knowledge, this site provides the northernmost evidence of fire during the Pliocene. It suggests that ecosystem productivity was greater than in the present day, providing fuel for wildfires, and that the climate was conducive to the ignition of fire during this period. The results reveal that interactions between paleo-vegetation and paleoclimate were mediated by fire in the High Arctic during the Pliocene, even though CO2 concentrations were similar to modern values.

Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (~53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO2 levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.

The impact of aerosols on cloud properties is one of the largest uncertainties in the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. Significant progress has been made in constraining this forcing using observations, but uncertainty remains, particularly in the magnitude of cloud rapid adjustments to aerosol perturbations. Cloud liquid water path (LWP) is the leading control on liquid-cloud albedo, making it important to observationally constrain the aerosol impact on LWP. Previous modelling and observational studies have shown that multiple processes play a role in determining the LWP response to aerosol perturbations, but that the aerosol effect can be difficult to isolate. Following previous studies using mediating variables, this work investigates use of the relationship between cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) and LWP for constraining the role of aerosols. Using joint-probability histograms to account for the non-linear relationship, this work finds a relationship that is broadly consistent with previous studies. There is significant geographical variation in the relationship, partly due to role of meteorological factors (particularly relative humidity). The Nd–LWP relationship is negative in the majority of regions, suggesting that aerosol-induced LWP reductions could offset a significant fraction of the instantaneous radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci). However, variations in the Nd–LWP relationship in response to volcanic and shipping aerosol perturbations indicate that the Nd–LWP relationship overestimates the causal Nd impact on LWP due to the role of confounding factors. The weaker LWP reduction implied by these “natural experiments” means that this work provides an upper bound to the radiative forcing from aerosol-induced changes in the LWP.

The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

Here we present a merged and calibrated dataset of temperature, practical salinity and dissolved organic matter (DOM) fluorescence obtained from several Ice Tethered Profilers (ITPs) deployed across the central Arctic (2011-2016). The data offer a unique spatial coverage of the distribution of DOM in the surface 800 m below Arctic sea ice. A total of 5044 profiles are gathered. The ITP data are level 3 data products pressure-bin-averaged at 1-db vertical resolution with depth down to either 200 or approximately 750 m. Data (max 800m depth) from CTD casts made during two oceanographic cruises are also included. These were used as part of the calibration and validation of the ITP calibration routines. The cruises were PS94 (ARK-XXIX/3) with POLARSTERN in 2015 and NAACOS with DANA in 2012. The presented DOM fluorescence data are smoothed, corrected for instrument drift and calibrated to provide intercomparable data across the sensors. Fluorescence is reported in Raman Units (nm-1), and comparable to laboratory measurements conducted according to current community recommendations.

A well-documented, publicly available, global data set of surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) parameters has been called for by international groups for nearly two decades. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) project was initiated by the international marine carbon science community in 2007 with the aim of providing a comprehensive, publicly available, regularly updated, global data set of marine surface CO2, which had been subject to quality control (QC). Many additional CO2 data, not yet made public via the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), were retrieved from data originators, public websites and other data centres. All data were put in a uniform format following a strict protocol. Quality control was carried out according to clearly defined criteria. Regional specialists performed the quality control, using state-of-the-art web-based tools, specially developed for accomplishing this global team effort. SOCAT version 1.5 was made public in September 2011 and holds 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO2 data points from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968-2007). Three types of data products are available: individual cruise files, a merged complete data set and gridded products. With the rapid expansion of marine CO2 data collection and the importance of quantifying net global oceanic CO2 uptake and its changes, sustained data synthesis and data access are priorities.