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Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Shelf seas are among the most active biogeochemical marine environments and the East Siberian Sea is a prime example. This sea is supplied by seawater from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and has a substantial input of river runoff. All of these waters contribute chemical constituents, dissolved and particulate, but of different signatures. Sea ice formation during the winter season and melting in the summer has a major impact on physical as well as biogeochemical conditions. The internal circulation and water mass distribution is significantly influenced by the atmospheric pressure field. The western region is dominated by input of river runoff from the Laptev Sea and an extensive input of terrestrial organic matter. The microbial decay of this organic matter produces carbon dioxide (CO2) that oversaturates all waters from the surface to bottom relative to atmospheric level, even when primary production, inferred from low surface water nutrients, has occurred. The eastern surface waters were under-saturated with respect to CO2 illustrating the dominance of marine primary production. The drawdown of dissolved inorganic carbon equals a primary production of ~0.8 ± 2 mol C m−2, which when multiplied by half the area of the East Siberian Sea, ~500 000 km2, results in an annual primary production of 0.4 (± 1) × 1012 mol C or ~4 (± 10) × 1012 gC. Microbial decay occurs through much of the water column, but dominates at the sediment interface where the majority of organic matter ends up, thus more of the decay products are recycled to the bottom water. High nutrient concentrations and fugacity of CO2 and low oxygen and pH were observed in the bottom waters. Another signature of organic matter decomposition, methane (CH4), was observed in very high but variable concentrations. This is due to its seabed sources of glacial origin or modern production from ancient organic matter, becoming available due to sub-sea permafrost thaw and formation of so-called taliks. The decay of organic matter to CO2 as well as oxidation of CH4 to CO2 contribute to a natural ocean acidification making the saturation state of calcium carbonate low, resulting in under-saturation of all the bottom waters with respect to aragonite and large areas of under-saturation down to 50 % with respect to calcite. Hence, conditions for calcifying organisms are very unfavorable.

Coastal areas are impacted by multiple natural and anthropogenic processes and experience stronger pH fluctuations than the open ocean. These variations can weaken or intensify the ocean acidification signal induced by increasing atmospheric pCO2. The development of eutrophication-induced hypoxia intensifies coastal acidification, since the CO2 produced during respiration decreases the buffering capacity in any hypoxic bottom water. To assess the combined ecosystem impacts of acidification and hypoxia, we quantified the seasonal variation in pH and oxygen dynamics in the water column of a seasonally stratified coastal basin (Lake Grevelingen, the Netherlands). Monthly water-column chemistry measurements were complemented with estimates of primary production and respiration using O2 light–dark incubations, in addition to sediment–water fluxes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). The resulting data set was used to set up a proton budget on a seasonal scale. Temperature-induced seasonal stratification combined with a high community respiration was responsible for the depletion of oxygen in the bottom water in summer. The surface water showed strong seasonal variation in process rates (primary production, CO2 air–sea exchange), but relatively small seasonal pH fluctuations (0.46 units on the total hydrogen ion scale). In contrast, the bottom water showed less seasonality in biogeochemical rates (respiration, sediment–water exchange), but stronger pH fluctuations (0.60 units). This marked difference in pH dynamics could be attributed to a substantial reduction in the acid–base buffering capacity of the hypoxic bottom water in the summer period. Our results highlight the importance of acid–base buffering in the pH dynamics of coastal systems and illustrate the increasing vulnerability of hypoxic, CO2-rich waters to any acidifying process.

Mollusks record valuable information in their hard parts that reflect ambient environmental conditions. For this reason, shells can serve as excellent archives to reconstruct past climate and environmental variability. However, animal physiology and biomineralization, which are often poorly understood, can make the decoding of environmental signals a challenging task. Many of the routinely used shell-based proxies are sensitive to multiple different environmental and physiological variables. Therefore, the identification and interpretation of individual environmental signals (e.g., water temperature) often is particularly difficult. Additional proxies not influenced by multiple environmental variables or animal physiology would be a great asset in the field of paleoclimatology. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential use of structural properties of Arctica islandica shells as an environmental proxy. A total of 11 specimens were analyzed to study if changes of the microstructural organization of this marine bivalve are related to environmental conditions. In order to limit the interference of multiple parameters, the samples were cultured under controlled conditions. Three specimens presented here were grown at two different water temperatures (10 and 15 °C) for multiple weeks and exposed only to ambient food conditions. An additional eight specimens were reared under three different dietary regimes. Shell material was analyzed with two techniques; (1) confocal Raman microscopy (CRM) was used to quantify changes of the orientation of microstructural units and pigment distribution, and (2) scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to detect changes in microstructural organization. Our results indicate that A. islandica microstructure is not sensitive to changes in the food source and, likely, shell pigment are not altered by diet. However, seawater temperature had a statistically significant effect on the orientation of the biomineral. Although additional work is required, the results presented here suggest that the crystallographic orientation of biomineral units of A. islandica may serve as an alternative and independent proxy for seawater temperature.

Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of coral habitats is classified on the basis of the currently observed regional ranges for temperature and saturation states with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that, under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats are projected to expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between regions where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and regions where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the habitat suitable for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan may be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The habitat suitable for the temperate coral communities is also projected to decrease, although at a less pronounced rate, due to the higher tolerance of temperate corals for low Ωarag. Our study has two important caveats: first, it does not consider the potential adaptation of the coral communities, which would permit them to colonize habitats that are outside their current range. Second, it also does not consider whether or not coral communities can migrate quickly enough to actually occupy newly emerging habitats. As such, our results serve as a baseline for the assessment of the future evolution of coral habitats, but the consideration of important biological and ecological factors and feedbacks will be required to make more accurate projections.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is sensitive to changes in the depth at which sinking particulate organic matter is remineralized: often described as a change in the exponent “b” of the Martin curve. Sediment trap observations from deep and intermediate depths suggest there is a spatially heterogeneous pattern of b, particularly varying with latitude, but disagree over the exact spatial patterns. Here we use a biogeochemical model of the phosphorus cycle coupled with a steady-state representation of ocean circulation to explore the sensitivity of preformed phosphate and atmospheric CO2 to spatial variability in remineralization depths. A Latin hypercube sampling method is used to simultaneously vary the Martin curve independently within 15 different regions, as a basis for a regression-based analysis used to derive a quantitative measure of sensitivity. Approximately 30 % of the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to changes in remineralization depths is driven by changes in the subantarctic region (36 to 60∘ S) similar in magnitude to the Pacific basin despite the much smaller area and lower export production. Overall, the absolute magnitude of sensitivity is controlled by export production, but the relative spatial patterns in sensitivity are predominantly constrained by ocean circulation pathways. The high sensitivity in the subantarctic regions is driven by a combination of high export production and the high connectivity of these regions to regions important for the export of preformed nutrients such as the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. Overall, regionally varying remineralization depths contribute to variability in CO2 of between around 5 and 15 ppm, relative to a global mean change in remineralization depth. Future changes in the environmental and ecological drivers of remineralization, such as temperature and ocean acidification, are expected to be most significant in the high latitudes where CO2 sensitivity to remineralization is also highest. The importance of ocean circulation pathways to the high sensitivity in subantarctic regions also has significance for past climates given the importance of circulation changes in the Southern Ocean.

Over the past couple of decades it has become apparent that air-land-sea interactions in the Arctic have a substantial impact on the composition of the overlying atmosphere (ACIA, 2004). The Arctic Ocean is small (only ~4 % of the total World Ocean), but it is surrounded by offshore and onshore permafrost which is thawing at increasing rates under warming conditions, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2) into the water and atmosphere. The Arctic Ocean shelf where the most intensive biogeochemical processes have occurred occupies 1/3 of the ocean. The East Siberian Sea (ESS) shelf is the shallowest and widest shelf among the Arctic seas, and the least studied. The objective of this study was to highlight the importance of different factors that impact the carbon system (CS) as well as the CO2 flux dynamics in the ESS. CS variables were measured in the ESS in September 2003 and, 2004 and in late August–September 2008. It was shown that the western part of the ESS represents a river- and coastal-erosion-dominated heterotrophic ocean margin that is a source for atmospheric CO2. The eastern part of the ESS is a Pacific-water-dominated autotrophic area, which acts as a sink for atmospheric CO2. Our results indicate that the year-to-year dynamics of the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface water as well as the air-sea flux of CO2 varies substantially. In one year the ESS shelf was mainly heterotrophic and served as a moderate summertime source of CO2 (year 2004). In another year gross primary production exceeded community respiration in a relatively large part of the ESS and the ESS shelf was only a weak source of CO2 into the atmosphere (year 2008). It was shown that many factors impact the CS and CO2 flux dynamics (such as river runoff, coastal erosion, primary production/respiration, etc.), but they were mainly determined by the interplay and distribution of water masses that are basically influenced by the atmospheric circulation. In this contribution the air-sea CO2 fluxes were evaluated in the ESS based on measured CS characteristics, and summertime fluxes were estimated. It was shown that the total ESS shelf is a net source of CO2 for the atmosphere in a range of 0.4 × 1012 to 2.3 × 1012 g C.

In this study we analyzed sediment trap time series from five tropical sites to assess seasonal variations in concentrations and fluxes of long-chain diols (LCDs) and associated proxies with emphasis on the long-chain diol index (LDI) temperature proxy. For the tropical Atlantic, we observe that generally less than 2 % of LCDs settling from the water column are preserved in the sediment. The Atlantic and Mozambique Channel traps reveal minimal seasonal variations in the LDI, similar to the two other lipid-based temperature proxies TEX86 and U37K′. In addition, annual mean LDI-derived temperatures are in good agreement with the annual mean satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In contrast, the LDI in the Cariaco Basin shows larger seasonal variation, as do the TEX86 and U37K′. Here, the LDI underestimates SST during the warmest months, which is possibly due to summer stratification and the habitat depth of the diol producers deepening to around 20–30 m. Surface sediment LDI temperatures in the Atlantic and Mozambique Channel compare well with the average LDI-derived temperatures from the overlying sediment traps, as well as with decadal annual mean SST. Lastly, we observed large seasonal variations in the diol index, as an indicator of upwelling conditions, at three sites: in the eastern Atlantic, potentially linked to Guinea Dome upwelling; in the Cariaco Basin, likely caused by seasonal upwelling; and in the Mozambique Channel, where diol index variations may be driven by upwelling from favorable winds and/or eddy migration.