• European Marine Science
• Other research products close
• EC|FP7 close

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Governing marine environments is a highly complex and challenging enterprise. This applies particularly to the heavily exploited Baltic Sea for which despite extensive governance arrangements and a substantial scientific knowledge base, it is unlikely that the policy objective of ‘good environmental status’ is reached. Based on a review of governance arrangements linked to five large-scale environmental issues (eutrophication, overfishing, invasive alien species, chemical pollution and oil spills from shipping), this chapter aims to identify pathways and concrete ideas for institutional reform that may improve goal fulfilment. The results show that governance challenges differ substantially between environmental issues, implying a need for case-specific management reforms. For example, coping with extreme uncertainty is a key challenge in the chemical pollution case, whereas it seems more pertinent in the eutrophication case to address the complexity of nutrient pollution sources by adapting objectives and measures amongst sectoral policies to be in line with environmental ones. Furthermore, cross-case comparisons reveal a set of common vital functions (i.e. coordination, integration, interdisciplinarity, precaution, deliberation, communication and adaptability) that are needed in order to facilitate effective and efficient environmental governance in the long term. To promote these functions in Baltic Sea environmental governance, the chapter suggests pathways and institutional reforms aimed at improving multilevel and multisectoral integration, science-policy interactions and stakeholder participation. To further develop these ideas, it is proposed amongst other things that priority is given to setting up an international ‘Baltic Sea Policy Review Mechanism’, formed by cross-body and cross-stakeholder participation.

The flow of warm and saline water from the Atlantic Ocean, across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, into the Nordic Seas – the Atlantic inflow – is split into three separate branches. The most intense of these branches is the inflow between Iceland and the Faroe Islands (Faroes), which is focused into the Faroe Current, north of the Faroes. The Atlantic inflow is an integral part of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC), which is projected to weaken during the 21st century and might conceivably reduce the oceanic heat and salt transports towards the Arctic. Since the mid-1990s, hydrographic properties and current velocities of the Faroe Current have been monitored along a section extending north from the Faroe shelf. From these in situ observations, time series of volume, heat, and salt transport have previously been reported, but the high variability of the transport has made it difficult to establish whether there are trends. Here, we present results from a new analysis of the Faroe Current where the in situ observations have been combined with satellite altimetry. For the period 1993 to 2013, we find the average volume transport of Atlantic water in the Faroe Current to be 3.8 ± 0.5 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) with a heat transport relative to 0 °C of 124 ± 15 TW (1 TW = 1012 W). Consistent with other results for the Northeast Atlantic component of the THC, we find no indication of weakening. The transports of the Faroe Current, on the contrary, increased. The overall increase over the 2 decades of observation was 9 ± 8 % for volume transport and 18 ± 9 % for heat transport (95 % confidence intervals). During the same period, the salt transport relative to the salinity of the deep Faroe Bank Channel overflow (34.93) more than doubled, potentially strengthening the feedback on thermohaline intensity. The increased heat and salt transports are partly caused by the increased volume transport and partly by increased temperatures and salinities of the Atlantic inflow, which have been claimed mainly to be caused by the weakened subpolar gyre.

The gCube social networking facilities manifest in a number of applications made available through a thin Web browser are conceptually close to the common facilities promoted by social networks - e.g., posting news, commenting on posted news - yet adapted to deal with large scale collaboration and cooperation on comprehensive scientific products, data sets, theories and tools. Social Profile allow users to enter their professional data and contact information. It also allows to import the profile data directly from LinkedIn via the OAuth 2.0 protocol.

The extending record of ocean colour derived information, an important asset for the study of marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry, presently relies on individual satellite missions launched by several space agencies with differences in sensor design, calibration strategies and algorithms. In this study we present an extensive comparative analysis of standard products obtained from operational global ocean colour sensors (SeaWiFS, MERIS, MODIS-Aqua, MODIS-Terra), on both global and regional scales. The analysis is based on monthly mean chlorophyll a (Chl-a) sea surface concentration between 2002 and 2009. Based on global statistics, the Chl-a records appear relatively consistent. The root mean square (RMS) difference Δ between (log-transformed) Chl-a from SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua amounts to 0.137, with a bias of 0.074 (SeaWiFS Chl-a higher). The difference between these two products and MERIS Chl-a is approximately 0.15. Restricting the analysis to 2007 only, Δ between MODIS Aqua and Terra is 0.142. This global convergence is significantly modulated regionally. Statistics for biogeographic provinces representing a partition of the global ocean, show Δ values varying between 0.08 and 0.3. High latitude regions, as well as coastal and shelf provinces are generally the areas with the largest differences. Moreover, RMS differences and biases are modulated in time, with a coefficient of variation of Δ varying between 10% and 40%, with clear seasonal patterns in some provinces. The comparison of the province-averaged time series obtained from the various satellite products also shows a level of agreement that is geographically variable. Overall, the Chl-a SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua series appear to have similar levels of variance and display high correlation coefficients, an agreement likely favoured by the common elements shared by the two missions. These results are degraded if the MERIS series is compared to either SeaWiFS or MODIS Aqua. An important outcome of the study is that the results of the inter-comparison analysis are variable with time and location, and therefore globally averaged statistics are not necessarily applicable on a seasonal or regional basis.