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Tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations depend on a combination of hemispheric, regional, and local-scale processes. Estimates of how much O3 is produced locally vs. transported from further afield are essential in air quality management and regulatory policies. Here, a tagged-ozone mechanism within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to quantify the contributions to surface O3 in the UK from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from inside and outside the UK during May–August 2015. The contribution of the different source regions to three regulatory O3 metrics is also examined. It is shown that model simulations predict the concentration and spatial distribution of surface O3 with a domain-wide mean bias of −3.7 ppbv. Anthropogenic NOx emissions from the UK and Europe account for 13 % and 16 %, respectively, of the monthly mean surface O3 in the UK, as the majority (71 %) of O3 originates from the hemispheric background. Hemispheric O3 contributes the most to concentrations in the north and the west of the UK with peaks in May, whereas European and UK contributions are most significant in the east, south-east, and London, i.e. the UK's most populated areas, intensifying towards June and July. Moreover, O3 from European sources is generally transported to the UK rather than produced in situ. It is demonstrated that more stringent emission controls over continental Europe, particularly in western Europe, would be necessary to improve the health-related metric MDA8 O3 above 50 and 60 ppbv. Emission controls over larger areas, such as the Northern Hemisphere, are instead required to lessen the impacts on ecosystems as quantified by the AOT40 metric.

We present novel measurements of the carbon isotope composition of CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), and CFC-113 (CF2ClCFCl2), three atmospheric trace gases that are important for both stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. These measurements were carried out on air samples collected in the stratosphere – the main sink region for these gases – and on air extracted from deep polar firn snow. We quantify, for the first time, the apparent isotopic fractionation, ϵapp(13C), for these gases as they are destroyed in the high- and mid-latitude stratosphere: ϵapp(CFC-12, high-latitude) =(-20.2±4.4) ‰, and ϵapp(CFC-113, high-latitude) =(-9.4±4.4) ‰, ϵapp(CFC-12, mid-latitude) =(-30.3±10.7) ‰, and ϵapp(CFC-113, mid-latitude) =(-34.4±9.8) ‰. Our CFC-11 measurements were not sufficient to calculate ϵapp(CFC-11), so we instead used previously reported photolytic fractionation for CFC-11 and CFC-12 to scale our ϵapp(CFC-12), resulting in ϵapp(CFC-11, high-latitude) =(-7.8±1.7) ‰ and ϵapp(CFC-11, mid-latitude) =(-11.7±4.2) ‰. Measurements of firn air were used to construct histories of the tropospheric isotopic composition, δT(13C), for CFC-11 (1950s to 2009), CFC-12 (1950s to 2009), and CFC-113 (1970s to 2009), with δT(13C) increasing for each gas. We used ϵapp(high-latitude), which was derived from more data, and a constant isotopic composition of emissions, δE(13C), to model δT(13C, CFC-11), δT(13C, CFC-12), and δT(13C, CFC-113). For CFC-11 and CFC-12, modelled δT(13C) was consistent with measured δT(13C) for the entire period covered by the measurements, suggesting that no dramatic change in δE(13C, CFC-11) or δE(13C, CFC-12) has occurred since the 1950s. For CFC-113, our modelled δT(13C, CFC-113) did not agree with our measurements earlier than 1980. This discrepancy may be indicative of a change in δE(13C, CFC-113). However, this conclusion is based largely on a single sample and only just significant outside the 95 % confidence interval. Therefore more work is needed to independently verify this temporal trend in the global tropospheric 13C isotopic composition of CFC-113. Our modelling predicts increasing δT(13C, CFC-11), δT(13C, CFC-12), and δT(13C, CFC-113) into the future. We investigated the effect of recently reported new CFC-11 emissions on background δT(13C, CFC-11) by fixing model emissions after 2012 and comparing δT(13C, CFC-11) in this scenario to the model base case. The difference in δT(13C, CFC-11) between these scenarios was 1.4 ‰ in 2050. This difference is smaller than our model uncertainty envelope and would therefore require improved modelling and measurement precision as well as better quantified isotopic source compositions to detect.

Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

Mixing ratios of the atmospheric nitrogen oxides NO and NO2 were measured as part of the OPALE (Oxidant Production in Antarctic Lands & Export) campaign at Dome C, East Antarctica (75.1° S, 123.3° E, 3233 m), during December 2011 to January 2012. Profiles of NOx mixing ratios of the lower 100 m of the atmosphere confirm that, in contrast to the South Pole, air chemistry at Dome C is strongly influenced by large diurnal cycles in solar irradiance and a sudden collapse of the atmospheric boundary layer in the early evening. Depth profiles of mixing ratios in firn air suggest that the upper snowpack at Dome C holds a significant reservoir of photolytically produced NO2 and is a sink of gas-phase ozone (O3). First-time observations of bromine oxide (BrO) at Dome C show that mixing ratios of BrO near the ground are low, certainly less than 5 pptv, with higher levels in the free troposphere. Assuming steady state, observed mixing ratios of BrO and RO2 radicals are too low to explain the large NO2 : NO ratios found in ambient air, possibly indicating the existence of an unknown process contributing to the atmospheric chemistry of reactive nitrogen above the Antarctic Plateau. During 2011–2012, NOx mixing ratios and flux were larger than in 2009–2010, consistent with also larger surface O3 mixing ratios resulting from increased net O3 production. Large NOx mixing ratios at Dome C arise from a combination of continuous sunlight, shallow mixing height and significant NOx emissions by surface snow (FNOx). During 23 December 2011–12 January 2012, median FNOx was twice that during the same period in 2009–2010 due to significantly larger atmospheric turbulence and a slightly stronger snowpack source. A tripling of FNOx in December 2011 was largely due to changes in snowpack source strength caused primarily by changes in NO3− concentrations in the snow skin layer, and only to a secondary order by decrease of total column O3 and associated increase in NO3− photolysis rates. A source of uncertainty in model estimates of FNOx is the quantum yield of NO3− photolysis in natural snow, which may change over time as the snow ages.