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A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3 ∘C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4 ∘C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.

Lower glacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been attributed to carbon sequestration in deep oceans. However, potential roles of voluminous subtropical North Pacific in modulating atmospheric CO2 levels on millennial timescale are poorly constrained. Further, an increase in respired CO2 concentration in the glacial deep ocean due to biological pump generally is coeval with less oxygenation in the subsurface layer. This link thus offers a chance to visit oceanic ventilation and the coeval export productivity based on redox-controlled sedimentary geochemical parameters. Here we investigate a suite of sediment geochemical proxies to understand the sedimentary oxygenation variations in the subtropical North Pacific (core CSH1) over the last 50 thousand years (ka). Our results suggest that sedimentary oxygenation at mid-depths of the subtropical North Pacific intensifies during the episodes of late glacial (50–25 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and also the interval after 8.5 ka, especially pronounced for the North Atlantic millennial-scale abrupt cold events of the Younger Dryas, Heinrich Stadial (HS) 1 and 2. On the other hand, oxygen-depleted seawater is found during the Bölling-Alleröd (B/A) and Preboreal. Our findings of enhanced sedimentary oxygenation in the subtropical North Pacific is aligned with intensified formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) during cold spells, while the ameliorated sedimentary oxygenation seems to be linked with the intensified Kuroshio Current since 8.5 ka. In our results, diminished sedimentary oxygenation during the B/A indicates an enhanced CO2 sequestration at mid-depth waters, along with slight increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Mechanistically, we speculate that these millennial-scale changes were linked to the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water, leading to intensification of NPIW formation and enhanced abyss flushing during deglacial cold and warm intervals, respectively. Enhanced formation of NPIW seem to be driven by the perturbation of sea ice formation and sea surface salinity oscillation in high latitude North Pacific through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection. During the B/A, decreased sedimentary oxygenation likely resulted from an upward penetration of aged deep water into the intermediate-depth in the North Pacific, corresponding to a resumption of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Abstract. Gaining insights into the evolution of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) during the Early Pleistocene has been so far hampered by the lack of available palaeoclimatic archives. Here we present the first benthic foraminifera stable oxygen and carbon isotope records and grain-size data from IODP Expedition 339 Site U1389 presently located within the upper core of the MOW in the Gulf of Cadiz for the time interval between 2.6 and 1.8 Ma. A comparison with an intermediate water mass record from the Mediterranean Sea strongly suggest an active MOW supplying Site U1389 on glacial–interglacial timescales during the Early Pleistocene. We also find indication that the increasing presence of MOW in the Gulf of Cadiz during the investigated time interval aligns with the progressive northward protrusion of Mediterranean sourced intermediate water masses into the North Atlantic, possibly modulating the intensification of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at the same time. Additionally, our results suggest that MOW flow strength was already governed by precession and semi-precession cyclicity during the Early Pleistocene against the background of glacial–interglacial variability.

Abstract. To develop an in-depth understanding of the natural dynamics of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the last deglaciation, stacked North- (N-) and South-IPWP (S-IPWP) thermal and hydrological records over the past 23–10.5 thousand years (ka) were built using planktonic foraminiferal geochemical data from a new core, MD05-2925 (9.3° S, 151.5° E, water depth 1661 m) in the Solomon Sea and eleven previous sites. Ice-volume corrected seawater δ18O (δ18OSW-IVC) stacks show that S-IPWP δ18OSW-IVC values are indistinguishable from their northern counterpart through glacial time. The N-IPWP SST stacked record features an increasing trend of 0.5 °C ka−1 since 18 ka. Its S-IPWP counterpart shows an earlier onset of temperature increase at 19 ka and a strong teleconnection to high-latitude climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Meridional SST gradients between N- and S-IPWP were 1.5 °C during the Bølling/Allerød period and < 0.5 °C during both Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Dryas due to a warmer S-IPWP. A warm S-IPWP during the cold events snapshots may possibly weaken the southern hemispheric convection branch of the Hadley Cell and reduce precipitation in the Asian Monsoon region.

We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg / Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall , the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for bench-marking model simulations. Further evaluations of potential subsurface and/or seasonal artifacts that may contribute to obscure the MH SST reconstructions are urgently needed to provide reliable benchmarks for model evaluations. International audience

Abstract. The response of the East Asian winter monsoon variability to orbital forcing is still unclear, and hypotheses are controversial. We present a 150 000 yr record of sea surface temperature difference (ΔSST) between the South China Sea and other Western Pacific Warm Pool regions as a proxy for the intensity of the Asian winter monsoon, because the winter cooling of the South China Sea is caused by the cooling of surface water at the northern margin and the southward advection of cooled water due to winter monsoon winds. The ΔSST showed dominant precession cycles during the past 150 000 yr. The ΔSST varies at precessional band and supports the hypothesis that monsoon is regulated by insolation changes at low-latitudes (Kutzbach, 1981), but contradicts previous suggestions based on marine and loess records that eccentricity controls variability on glacial–interglacial timescales. Maximum winter monsoon intensity corresponds to the May perihelion at precessional band, which is not fully consistent with the Kutzbach model of maximum winter monsoon at the June perihelion. Variation in the East Asian winter monsoon was anti-phased with the Indian summer monsoon, suggesting a linkage of dynamics between these two monsoon systems on an orbital timescale.