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The characterisation of future extreme wave events is crucial because of their multiple impacts, covering a broad range of topics such as coastal flood hazard, coastal erosion, reliability of offshore and coastal structures. The main goal of this paper is to propose and study a stochastic simulator that, given offshore conditions (peak direction Dp, peak period Tp and moderately high significant wave heights Hs), produces jointly offshore and coastal extreme Hs, a quantity measuring the wave severity and which represent a key feature in coastal risk analysis. For this purpose, we rely on bivariate Peaks over Threshold and a nonparametric simulation scheme of bivariate GPD is developed. From this joint simulator, a second generator is derived, allowing for conditional simulations of extreme Hs. Finally, to take into account nonstationarities, the extended generalised Pareto model is also adapted, letting the parameters vary with specific sea state parameters Tp and Dp. The performances of the two proposed generators are illustrated on simulated data and then applied to the simulation of new extreme oceanographic conditions close to the French Brittany coast using hindcast sea state data. Results show that the proposed algorithms successfully simulate future extreme Hs near the coast in a nonparametric way, jointly or conditionally on sea state parameters from a coarser model.

Mucopolysaccharidosis IIIA is a hereditary disease caused by mutations in the sulfamidase enzyme that participates in catabolism of heparan sulfate (HS), leading to HS fragment accumulation and multisystemic failure. No cure exists and death occurs around the second decade of life. Two low molecular weight highly sulfated compounds derived from marine diabolican and infernan exopolysaccharides (A5_3 and A5_4, respectively) with heparanase inhibiting properties were tested in a MPSIIIA cell line model, resulting in limited degradation of intracellular HS. Next, we observed the effects of intraperitoneal injections of the diabolican derivative A5_3 from 4 to 12 weeks of age on MPSIIIA mice. Brain metabolism and microstructure, levels of proteins and genes involved in MPSIIIA brain pathophysiology were also investigated. 1H-Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) indicated deficits in energetic metabolism, tissue integrity and neurotransmission at both 4 and 12 weeks in MPSIIIA mice, with partial protective effects of A5_3. Ex-vivo Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) showed white matter microstructural damage in MPSIIIA, with noticeable protective effects of A5_3. Protein and gene expression assessments displayed both pro-inflammatory and pro-apoptotic profiles in MPSIIIA mice, with benefits of A5_3 counteracting neuroinflammation. Overall, derivative A5_3 was well tolerated and was shown to be efficient in preventing brain metabolism failure and inflammation, resulting in preserved brain microstructure in the context of MPSIIIA.

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.

This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO₂ flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr⁻¹ based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO₂ (pCO₂ products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹ by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1 by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹ of terrestrially derived CO₂, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO₂ products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO₂-driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹, respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO₂-forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO₂ dominates the ocean CO₂ sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 37 (10) ISSN:1944-9224 ISSN:0886-6236

AbstractForaminiferal isotopes are widely used to study past oceans, with different species recording conditions at different depths. Their δ18O values record both seawater oxygen‐18 and temperature according to species‐specific fractionation factors, while their Δ47 signatures likely depend only on temperature. We describe an open‐source framework to collect/combine data relevant to foraminiferal isotopes, by constraining species‐specific oxygen‐18 fractionation factors (18α) based on culture experiments, stratified plankton tows or core‐top sediments; compiling stratified plankton tow constraints on living depths for planktic species; extracting seawater temperature, δ18O, and chemistry from existing databases for any latitude, longitude, and depth‐range; inferring calcification temperatures based on the above data. We find that although 18α differs between species, its temperature sensitivity remains indistinguishable from inorganic calcite. Based on > 2,600 observations we show that, although most planktic δ18O values are consistent with seawater temperature and δ18O over their expected living depths, a sizable minority (12%–24%) have heavier‐than‐predicted δ18O, best explained by calcification in deeper waters. We use this framework to revisit three recent Δ47 calibration studies of planktic/benthic foraminifera, confirming that planktic Δ47 varies systematically with oxygen‐18‐derived temperature estimates, even for samples whose δ18O disagrees with assumed climatological conditions, and demonstrating excellent agreement between planktic foraminifera and modern, largely inorganic Δ47 calibrations. Benthic foraminifera remain ambiguous: modern benthic Δ47 values appear offset from planktic ones, yet applying equilibrium Δ47 calibration to the Cenozoic benthic foraminifer record of Meckler et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abk0604) largely reconciles it with δ18O‐derived temperatures, with discrete Δ47/δ18O discrepancies persisting in the Late Paleocene/Eocene/Plio‐Pleistocene.

AbstractDinitrogen (N2) fixation provides the major source of reactive nitrogen in the open ocean, sustaining biological productivity. The Indian Ocean (IO) covers 22% of the ocean surface, while it only represents 1% of the global diazotroph database. Hence, constraining the sources of nitrogen in the IO is crucial. Here, we compile three decades of N2 fixation and diazotroph DNA data in the IO. Our analysis reveals basin‐scale yearly rates between ~ 7 and 13 Tg N yr−1. These rates are in the range of previous modeling‐based estimates but may represent a lower bound estimate due to the lack of data in this basin. Diazotroph variability among sub‐basins may suggest endemicity but needs to be taken with caution due to biased sampling toward certain seasons and uneven spatial coverage. We provide recommendations for a more accurate representation of the IO in the global nitrogen budget and our knowledge of diazotroph biogeography.

AbstractThe monitoring of soil moisture and sea surface salinity over the Earth has been profoundly enhanced during the last thirteen years due to a new generation of satellite sensors. L-band radiometry is currently the only technology providing direct measurements of soil moisture, insensitive to surface roughness and distribution of elements in the soil, and the only technology the only technology for measuring that allows us to measure sea surface salinity from space. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite missions resolve global and local variability with a spatial resolution of approximately 43 km, a swath width close to 1000 km, and a sampling time, for each mission, of at least twice every 3 days. These resolutions and samplings can be increased by either merging data from the two sensors, and with complementary information gathered from other passive or active sensors, or with in situ information at higher spatial resolution. Numerous scientific studies based on the use of this new type of measurement have led to a better understanding and constraint of the processes governing the variability of the water cycle, ocean circulation and the Earth's climate. The continuity of measurements, and the increased spatial and radiometric resolution is critical for fulfilling scientific needs. Future L-band radiometry missions currently being planned in Europe (the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer), and in China (the Ocean Salinity mission) should provide better constraints on auxiliary parameters by combining multiple frequencies, but they will not have improved spatial resolution beyond SMOS and SMAP. The temporal continuity with SMOS and SMAP will likely not be ensured. In parallel, new concepts are being developed to increase spatial resolution of both land and ocean parameters.

Abstract. We investigated the connectivity properties of an idealized western boundary current system separating two ocean gyres, where the flow is characterized by a well-defined mean circulation as well as energetic fine-scale features (i.e., mesoscale and submesoscale currents). We used a time-evolving 3D flow field from a high-resolution (HR-3D) ocean model of this system. In order to evaluate the role of the fine scales in connectivity estimates, we computed Lagrangian trajectories in three different ways: using the HR-3D flow, using the same flow but filtered on a coarse-resolution grid (CR-3D), and using the surface layer flow only (HR-SL). We examined connectivity between the two gyres along the western boundary current and across it by using and comparing different metrics, such as minimum and averaged values of transit time between 16 key sites, arrival depths, and probability density functions of transit times. We find that when the fine-scale flow is resolved, the numerical particles connect pairs of sites faster (between 100 to 300 d) than when it is absent. This is particularly true for sites that are along and near the jets separating the two gyres. Moreover, the connectivity is facilitated when 3D instead of surface currents are resolved. Finally, our results emphasize that ocean connectivity is 3D and not 2D and that assessing connectivity properties using climatologies or low-resolution velocity fields yields strongly biased estimates.