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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2022 Denmark, United Kingdom, NorwayPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Efrén, López-Blanco; Peter L, Langen; Mathew, Williams; Jens Hesselbjerg, Christensen; +3 AuthorsEfrén, López-Blanco; Peter L, Langen; Mathew, Williams; Jens Hesselbjerg, Christensen; Fredrik, Boberg; Kirsty, Langley; Torben Røjle, Christensen;The continuous change in observed key indicators such as increasing nitrogen deposition, temperatures and precipitation will have marked but uncertain consequences for the ecosystem carbon (C) sink-source functioning of the Arctic. Here, we use multiple in-situ data streams measured by the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring programme in tight connection with the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere model and climate projections from the high-resolution HIRHAM5 regional model. We apply this modelling framework with focus on two climatically different tundra sites in Greenland (Zackenberg and Kobbefjord) to assess how sensitive the net C uptake will expectedly be under warmer and wetter conditions across the 21st century and pin down the relative contribution to the overall C sink strength from climate versus plant trait variability. Our results suggest that temperatures (5–7.7 °C), total precipitation (19–110 %) and vapour pressure deficit will increase (32–36 %), while shortwave radiation will decline (6–9 %) at both sites by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Such a combined effect will, on average, intensify the net C uptake by 9–10 g C m−2 year−1 at both sites towards the end of 2100, but Zackenberg is expected to have more than twice the C sink strength capacity of Kobbefjord. Our sensitivity analysis not only reveals that plant traits are the most sensitive parameters controlling the net C exchange in both sites at the beginning and end of the century, but also that the projected increase in the net C uptake will likely be similarly influenced by future changes in climate and existing local nutrient conditions. A series of experiments forcing realistic changes in plant nitrogen status at both sites corroborates this hypothesis. This work proves the unique synergy between monitoring data and numerical models to assist robust model calibration/validation and narrow uncertainty ranges and ultimately produce more reliable C cycle projections in understudied regions such as Greenland.
Theses@asb; PURE Aar... arrow_drop_down Copenhagen University Research Information SystemArticle . 2022Data sources: Copenhagen University Research Information SystemThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 5 citations 5 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert Theses@asb; PURE Aar... arrow_drop_down Copenhagen University Research Information SystemArticle . 2022Data sources: Copenhagen University Research Information SystemThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2022 Denmark, United Kingdom, NorwayPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Efrén, López-Blanco; Peter L, Langen; Mathew, Williams; Jens Hesselbjerg, Christensen; +3 AuthorsEfrén, López-Blanco; Peter L, Langen; Mathew, Williams; Jens Hesselbjerg, Christensen; Fredrik, Boberg; Kirsty, Langley; Torben Røjle, Christensen;The continuous change in observed key indicators such as increasing nitrogen deposition, temperatures and precipitation will have marked but uncertain consequences for the ecosystem carbon (C) sink-source functioning of the Arctic. Here, we use multiple in-situ data streams measured by the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring programme in tight connection with the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere model and climate projections from the high-resolution HIRHAM5 regional model. We apply this modelling framework with focus on two climatically different tundra sites in Greenland (Zackenberg and Kobbefjord) to assess how sensitive the net C uptake will expectedly be under warmer and wetter conditions across the 21st century and pin down the relative contribution to the overall C sink strength from climate versus plant trait variability. Our results suggest that temperatures (5–7.7 °C), total precipitation (19–110 %) and vapour pressure deficit will increase (32–36 %), while shortwave radiation will decline (6–9 %) at both sites by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Such a combined effect will, on average, intensify the net C uptake by 9–10 g C m−2 year−1 at both sites towards the end of 2100, but Zackenberg is expected to have more than twice the C sink strength capacity of Kobbefjord. Our sensitivity analysis not only reveals that plant traits are the most sensitive parameters controlling the net C exchange in both sites at the beginning and end of the century, but also that the projected increase in the net C uptake will likely be similarly influenced by future changes in climate and existing local nutrient conditions. A series of experiments forcing realistic changes in plant nitrogen status at both sites corroborates this hypothesis. This work proves the unique synergy between monitoring data and numerical models to assist robust model calibration/validation and narrow uncertainty ranges and ultimately produce more reliable C cycle projections in understudied regions such as Greenland.
Theses@asb; PURE Aar... arrow_drop_down Copenhagen University Research Information SystemArticle . 2022Data sources: Copenhagen University Research Information SystemThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157385&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 5 citations 5 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert Theses@asb; PURE Aar... arrow_drop_down Copenhagen University Research Information SystemArticle . 2022Data sources: Copenhagen University Research Information SystemThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157385&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
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