A major unsolved problem in space weather involves predicting the solar wind at the Sun-Earth L1 point, specifically its speed and the north-south (Bz) magnetic field component. Knowledge of the future solar wind time evolution would allow us to drive any models for magnetospheric processes, such as the aurora, the radiation belts, the ionosphere or the currents induced in power lines with much higher reliability and forecast lead time than currently possible. Our modern society increasingly depends on space borne technology and predicting extreme space weather conditions at Earth is therefore of pivotal importance. Our hypothesis is that we can predict the strongest Bz fields in magnetic flux ropes in solar coronal mass ejection (CMEs) with a novel combination of hyper-fast semi-empirical models in our new HELIO4CAST simulation, capable of running millions of ensemble members within minutes. Due to the coherence of flux ropes, it will be possible to forecast geomagnetic storms with lead times of 12 hours or more. Additionally, for clarifying unsolved problems on the CME global shape and magnetic structure, a window of opportunity has opened at the start of solar cycle 25 with the successful launches and operations of Solar Orbiter, Parker Solar Probe, and BepiColombo, forming an unprecedented fleet of spacecraft to study CMEs. Groundbreaking numbers of multipoint lineup events, Solar Orbiter imaging for the first time from higher latitudes, and novel in situ data from Parker Solar Probe close to the Sun will lead to new discoveries. These unique observations in the solar wind will also deepen our knowledge of stellar CMEs. The team is lead by an accomplished PI with the necessary broad scientific expertise. This ERC project provides an unconventional, direct feedback loop between answering open scientific questions and the application of forecasts in real time that will bring decisive progress in making a reliable space weather prediction part of our daily lives.

According to the EU’s Climate Adaptation Strategy (COM(2021) 82), “improving knowledge and managing uncertainty” is key for realising the vision of a climate neutral and climate-resilient Union, as “Climate change is having such a pervasive impact that our response to it must be systemic”. Thus, there is an urgent need for an integrated approach for an enhanced understanding of the interaction, complementarity and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation measures, especially regarding the expected increase in region-al mean temperature, precipitation and changing soil moisture (IPCC AR6 WG I). Furthermore, this under-standing and knowledge needs to be provided to a broad audience to support local authorities in EU partner countries in developing regional programmes. KNOWING aims to develop a modelling framework to help understand and quantify the interactions between impacts and risks of climate change, mitigation pathways and adaptation strategies. The framework will be used to assess thAdvancing climate science and further broadening and deepening the knowledge base is essential to inform the societal transition towards a climate neutral and climate resilient society by 2050, as well as towards a more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction target by 2030. There is a need for research that furthers our understanding of past, present and expected future changes in climate and its implications on ecosystems and society, closing knowledge gaps, and develops the tools that support policy coherence and the implementation of effective mitigation and adaptation solutions. Currently, there is a lack of knowledge of the Earth system and the ability to predict and project its changes under different natural and socio-economic drivers, especially regarding complex interrelations, rebound effects and behavioural aspects. Therefore, a holistic, system-aware and behaviour centred approach is needed to identify and implement realistic and effective climate mitigation pathways.

Urban areas and traffic infrastructure linking such areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. Smart use of existing climate intelligence can increase urban resilience and generate added value for businesses and society at large. Based on the results of FP7 climate change, future internet and crisis preparedness projects (SUDPLAN, ENVIROFI, CRISMA) with an average TRL of 4-5 and following an agile and user-centred design process, end-users, purveyors and providers of climate intelligence will co-create an integrated Climate Services Information System (CSIS) to integrate resilience into urban infrastructure. As a result, CLARITY will provide an operational eco-system of cloud based climate services to calculate and present the expected effects of CC-induced and -amplified hazards at the level of risk, vulnerability and impact functions. CLARITY will offer what-If decision support functions to investigate the effects of adaptation measures and risk reduction options in the specific project context, and allow the comparison of alternative strategies. Four demonstration cases will showcase CLARITY climate services in different climatic, regional, infrastructure and hazard contexts in Italy, Sweden, Austria and Spain; focusing on the planning and implementation of urban infrastructure development projects. CLARITY will provide the practical means to include the effects of CC hazards and possible adaptation and risk management strategies into planning and implementation of such projects, focusing on increasing CC resilience. Decision makers involved in these projects will be empowered to perform climate proof and adaptive planning of adaptation and risk reduction options.

Aviation is one of the most critical infrastructures of the 21st century. Even comparably short interruptions can cause economic damage summing up to the Billion-Euro range. As evident from the past, aviation shows certain vulnerability with regard to natural hazards. The proposal EUNADICS-AV addresses airborne hazards (environmental emergency scenarios), including volcano eruptions, nuclear accidents and emergencies and other scenarios where aerosols and certain trace gases are injected into the atmosphere. Such events are considered rare, but may have an extremely high impact, as demonstrated during the European Volcanic Ash Crisis in 2010. Before the 1990s, insufficient monitoring as well as limited data analysis capabilities made it difficult to react to and to prepare for certain rare, high-impact events. Meanwhile, there are many data available during crisis situations, and the data analysis technology has improved significantly. However, there is still a significant gap in the Europe-wide availability of real time hazard measurement and monitoring information for airborne hazards describing “what, where, how much” in 3 dimensions, combined with a near-real-time European data analysis and assimilation system. The main objective of EUNADICS-AV is to close this gap in data and information availability, enabling all stakeholders in the aviation system to obtain fast, coherent and consistent information. This would allow a seamless response on a European scale, including ATM, ATC, airline flight dispatching and individual flight planning. In the SESAR 2020 Programme Execution Framework, EUNADICS-AV is a SESAR Enabling project (project delivering SESAR Technological Solutions). The project aims at passing a SESAR maturity level V2, which includes respective service validation activities, including validation exercises. Work will be also done to prepare a full V3 validation.

Starting from previous research experiences and tangible outcomes, STORM proposes a set of novel predictive models and improved non-invasive and non-destructive methods of survey and diagnosis, for effective prediction of environmental changes and for revealing threats and conditions that could damage cultural heritage sites. Moreover, STORM will determine how different vulnerable materials, structures and buildings are affected by different extreme weather events together with risks associated to climatic conditions or natural hazards, offering improved, effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, systems and technologies. An integrated system featuring novel sensors (intra fluorescent and wireless acoustic sensors), legacy systems, state of the art platforms (including LiDAR and UAVs), as well as crowdsourcing techniques will be implemented, offering applications and services over an open cloud infrastructure. An important result of STORM will be a cooperation platform for collaboratively collecting and enhancing knowledge, processes and methodologies on sustainable and effective safeguarding and management of European Cultural Heritage. The system will be capable of performing risk assessment on natural hazards taking into account environmental and anthropogenic risks, and of using Complex Events processing. Results will be tested in relevant case studies in five different countries: Italy, Greece, UK, Portugal and Turkey. The sites and consortium have been carefully selected so as to adequately represent the rich European Cultural Heritage, while associate partners that can assist with liaisons and links to other stakeholders and European sites are also included. The project will be carried out by a multidisciplinary team providing all competences needed to assure the implementation of a functional and effective solution to support all the actors involved in the management and preservation of Cultural Heritage sites.