The biodiversity, health and services of European marine ecosystems is severely threatened as cumulative human pressures and impacts continue to spread and increase throughout our seas and along our coasts. In order to put biodiversity on the path to recovery and thus achieve the ambitious policy goals set out by the EU Green Deal and the Biodiversity Strategy 2030, we need well informed science advice and operational decision-support tools allowing end-users to decide on conservation actions for biodiversity protection (e.g., MPAs), while at the same time seek to minimize trade-offs with other human use of ocean space (e.g., fishing, off shore energy and shipping). B-USEFUL will develop and deliver user-oriented solutions fit for uptake and implementation in decision making by effectively building upon existing European data infrastructures and governance frameworks for ecosystem-based management advice and marine spatial planning. This will be achieved by delivering upon the following objectives (here presented in short form) addressing the expected outcomes and impacts of the call and destination, namely to: (i) identify end-user needs; (ii) co-develop biodiversity indicators, targets and scenarios; (iii) create a standardized biodiversity and pressure data base; (iv) assess the status and cumulative impacts on biodiversity; (v) quantify risk and vulnerability to biodiversity loss; (vi) perform model forecasts of changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services; (vii) co-develop an interactive, online decision-support tool fit for management strategy evaluation of actions ensuring biodiversity protection. The project will embrace a process of co-creation where all outputs are iteratively co-developed, validated and approved by end-users. This serves not only to build mutual trust and credibility, but also facilitate direct uptake and implementation of the user-oriented tools and knowledge within operational decision-making for marine management and conservation.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service Evolution (CERISE) project aims to enhance the quality of the C3S reanalysis and seasonal forecast portfolio, with a focus on land-atmosphere coupling. It will support the evolution of C3S by improving the C3S climate reanalysis and seasonal prediction systems and products towards enhanced integrity and coherence of the C3S Earth system Essential Climate Variables. CERISE will develop new and innovative coupled land-atmosphere data assimilation approaches and land initialisation techniques to pave the way for the next generations of the C3S reanalysis and seasonal prediction systems. These developments will include innovative work on observation operators using Artificial Intelligence to ensure optimal data fusion integrated in coupled assimilation systems. They will enhance the exploitation of Earth system observations over land surfaces, including from the Copernicus Sentinels and from the European Space Agency Earth Explorer missions, moving towards an all-sky and all-surface approach. CERISE Research and Innovation will bring the C3S tools beyond the state-of-the-art in the areas of coupled land-atmosphere data assimilation, observation operators, and land initialisation methodologies. CERISE will develop diagnostic tools and prediction skill metrics that include integrated hydrological variables to go beyond the traditional skill scores to assess Earth system coupled reanalysis and seasonal prediction. It will deliver proof-of-concept prototypes and demonstrators, to demonstrate the feasibility of the integration of the developed approaches in the operational C3S. The CERISE outputs aim at medium to long-term upgrades of the C3S systems with targeted progressive implementation in the next three years and beyond. CERISE will improve the quality and consistency of the C3S reanalysis and multi-system seasonal prediction, directly addressing the evolving user needs for improved and more consistent C3S Earth system products.

NextGEMS will develop and apply a new generation of global coupled Storm-Resolving Earth System Models (SR-ESMs) to the study of anthropogenic climate change. SR-ESMs are distinguished by their fine, 3 km, grid in the atmosphere and ocean. This allows a more physical representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems, including their coupling to Earth-system processes such as the carbon, nutrients, water and atmospheric particulate (aerosol) cycles. NextGEMS will develop two prototypes SR-ESMs into production systems and produce multi-decadal (30 y) projections of future climate change. Improved resolution is expected to reduce biases and enhance the realism of these simulations. Ensembles of simulations will address scientific puzzles such as the impact of convective organization on climate sensitivity, the magnitude of aerosol forcing, and the changes in extremes associated with tropical air-sea interaction (including the African Monsoon and Atlantic Hurricanes) and land-surface interaction in the mid-latitudes (dry-spells and links between hydrology and carbon). By developing models that are structurally different than existing ones, NextGEMS will reshape perceptions of uncertainty and provide a basis for reassessing the risk global warming poses for society and ecology. By focusing on just two models, NextGEMS builds a European community of scientists and users around a technologically more ambitious modelling enterprise. This concentration is needed if Europe is to maintain its position at the forefront of Earth-system modelling. By representing the scales of motion and driving forces of high impact weather globally, NextGEMS links more directly to applications, thereby shortening the value chain. Knowledge coproduction projects focusing on how circulation influences both solar energy production and marine nutrients will demonstrate how applications and downstream users can thus be directly integrated into the model development enterprise.