The threat of antibiotic resistance has been compared to that posed by climate change and global terrorism by the Chief medical Officer Dame Sally Davies. Bacterial resistance to antibiotics has existed for hundreds of millions of years, as it evolved to combat antibiotics produced by bacteria and fungi. Resistance is conferred either by mutation or by uptake of DNA from other bacteria which may not even be closely related. This horizontal resistance gene transfer is one of the most important issues facing the fight against infection in the clinic. Novel resistance genes that are taken up by clinical pathogens originate in environmental bacteria, and once in human pathogens or even harmless commensal bacteria, will be selected for by clinical use of antibiotics. However, little is known about the conditions under or locations in which these genes are mobilised into human associated bacteria, or what the human exposure routes for transmission of these resistance genes are. Increasing evidence suggests that the use of antibiotics in agriculture contributes to the increase in resistance seen in the clinic, however much less research has focused on evolution of resistance in farm animals than in humans so less evidence is available. Even less is known regarding reservoirs of resistant bacteria in the natural environment, particularly locations heavily polluted by human or animal waste. 11 billion litres of waste water are discharged into UK rivers every day; critically much of this treatment does not significantly reduce numbers of resistant bacteria. Millions of tons of animal faecal wastes are spread to agricultural land every year, providing additional inputs of resistant organisms into the wider environment. Our previous work has shown that the use of a marker gene, which is predictive of levels of antibiotic resistance genes in sediments, varies by up to 1000 times between clean and dirty sediments. Our data also shows that waste water treatment plants are responsible for the majority of this effect (about 50%), and 30% is associated with diffuse pollution from land adjacent to the river. Other data generated by the consortium suggests that there are real human exposure risks to these environmental reservoirs of resistant organisms, with several million exposure events occurring each year in England and Wales through recreational use of coastal waters alone. This project will, for the first time, use cutting edge high through put DNA sequencing technologies and computational analyses to increase our understanding of the human activities that drive increased levels of antibiotic resistant bacteria across the River Thames catchment. Abundance and identity of over 3000 different resistance genes will be determined at 40 sampling sites, in triplicate at three time points over one year, to capture impacts of seasonality and flow. We will also measure a range of antibiotic residues, metals and nutrients. We will use graphical information system data on waste water treatment plant type, size and location and land use throughout the catchment. Together this data will be used to produce a model which will reveal the main drivers of resistance gene abundance and diversity at the catchment scale. We will also identify novel molecular markers associated with different sources of pollution that can be used as source tracking targets. We aim to analyse the effects of specific mitigation strategies that are able to reduce levels of resistant bacteria, this will enable estimates of reduction in resistance levels that can inform policy and regulatory targets. A translational tool will be developed for surveillance of the most important marker genes identified from the DNA sequence analyses and modelling work. This will be an affordable test that will help identify key factors for human health risk assessment.

We are facing a global biodiversity crisis and freshwater biodiversity is declining more rapidly than either terrestrial or marine biodiversity. One in ten freshwater and wetland species in England are threatened with extinction and two thirds of existing species are in decline. Regulatory data suggest that chemical pollution from wastewater discharges, transport, urban environments, agriculture and mining all contribute to failures against existing quality standards. The Environmental Audit Committee recently summarised the state of water quality as: "rivers in England are in a mess. A 'chemical cocktail' of sewage, agricultural waste, and plastic is polluting the waters of many of the country's rivers". However, these assessments of the impacts of chemicals on UK surface waters, are unlikely to reflect real impacts as they: focus on a small proportion of chemicals in use; take a single compound-single endpoint approach; ignore the combined effects of chemicals, water quality parameters and species interactions; and do not recognise that the sensitivity of ecological communities can vary in space and time. If we are to halt biodiversity loss in UK rivers while continuing to realise the societal benefits of chemicals, we urgently need more effective methods for assessing, predicting and managing the impacts of chemicals both now and in the future. We aim to deliver and demonstrate a new assessment framework that accounts for the known variability in the physico-chemical and ecological characteristics of a catchment and determines the combined impacts of mixtures of chemicals, bioavailability modifiers and nutrients on the structure and functioning of species assemblages at high spatial resolution. The framework will be developed not only to assess current chemical impacts but also future impacts resulting from changes driven by global megatrends such as climate change, urbanisation and population growth. Using 350 sites in nine Yorkshire river catchments covering different land-uses and pollution pressures, we will develop, test and demonstrate our framework by: 1. prioritising chemicals emitted to UK freshwaters to identify those chemicals in catchments that are driving impacts; 2. characterising current (2002-2022) and future (2061-2080) chemical exposure and general water quality parameter profiles in UK catchments; 3. estimating the effects of chemicals on UK-relevant species under different water quality conditions; 4. predicting the current and future combined effects of chemical mixtures, bioavailability modifiers and nutrients on biodiversity and ecosystem function; and 5. applying the findings to identify interventions to mitigate the impacts of chemicals on biodiversity now and under future climate and catchment change. The understanding and predictive modelling tools developed during this project will inform the development of better plans for adaptation and mitigation of risks associated with declining water quality now and in the future. By working closely with our partners, who include key representatives from the policy (JNCC), regulatory (HSE), major industry (Unilever, UKWIR, Network Rail) and NGO (National Trust, Rivers Trust) sectors, we will provide policy makers with the knowledge and frameworks to realise a paradigm shift towards chemical risk assessment that will protect biodiversity and key environmental functions in areas where they are vulnerable. Regulators and industry alike will be able to focus future investments and effort on scenarios where harm is most likely/actually occurring. Manufacturers of chemicals will be in a better position to produce chemicals that are beneficial to society but which do not negatively impact the natural environment and the ecosystem services that it provides. Only by taking an integrative and system-wide approach adopted in this project will we be able to deliver the Environment Act's aspiration to "reverse the decline in species abundance by the end of 2030".

Evidence indicating that nutrient flux to inland and coastal waters is increasing worldwide is clear. Despite significant management effort to reduce theses fluxes, while N & P concentrations have recently levelled off or decreased in some European catchments, in others an increase is reported, particularly in rivers draining through rapidly developing economic regions. A rising trend in Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) flux to freshwaters & coastal areas such as the Baltic Sea is also widely reported, particularly in the N Temperate & Boreal regions. Impacts on ecosystem health are extensive & undesirable in both freshwaters & coastal waters, & there are implications for human health where DOC & DON are also known to support carcinogen formation in water supplies. In Europe the control of nutrient flux to all freshwaters & the coastal zone is required in order to meet the target of restoring waters to Good Ecological Status under the EU Water Framework Directive, while the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is currently revising Annex IX of the Gothenburg Protocol (to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication & Ground-level Ozone) to further reduce the emission of ammonia from land-based activities. Simultaneously, the UN has listed coastal nutrient pollution and hypoxia as the one of the greatest current threats to the global environment. Impacts include eutrophication of coastal waters and oxygen depletion, and the associated damage to ecosystems, biodiversity & coastal water quality. The UNEP Manila Declaration (Jan 2012) identifies nutrient enrichment of the marine environment as one of 3 foci for its Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities, and this was one of the key foci at the Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development, June 2012. A detailed understanding of the nature, origins & rates of nutrient delivery to waters is essential if we are to control these impacts through management intervention, yet much of the necessary evidence base is lacking. Routine water quality monitoring is largely based on inorganic nutrient fractions, and substantially underestimates the total nutrient flux to waters, while research confirms that dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role in ecosystem function including supporting microbial metabolism, primary production and pollutant transport, suggesting that its oversight in routine monitoring may undermine international efforts to bring nutrient enrichment impacts under control. Here, we address this knowledge gap, building on the specific expertise of project members, undertaking a suite of interlinked experimental & observational research from molecular to catchment scale. We will use a combination of well-established approaches widely used in catchment research, with a range of cutting-edge approaches which are novel in their application to nutrient cycling research, or employ novel technologies, bringing new insights into the process controls on nutrient cycling at a molecular to river reach scale. The programme will deliver improved understanding of: 1. the role of DOM in the transport of N & P from source to sea & the ways in which this might alter nutrient delivery to freshwaters & the coastal zone under a changing climate; 2. the ecological significance of DOM as a source of nutrient uptake & utilisation by algal, plant and microbial communities in waters of contrasting nutrient status & DOM character; and 3. the impacts of DOM flux from soils, livestock & human waste fluxes on the ecological status, goods & services provided by freshwaters. It will also deliver knowledge exchange between the 5 groups & the wider science community, and have an impact beyond the lifetime of this project, building capacity through staff & PhD appointments in a field where current understanding is uncertain, undermining business planning and international policy development.

Impacts of water scarcity on the environment, society and the economy are complex. They are profoundly shaped by human choices and trade-offs between competing claims to water. Current practices for management of droughts in the UK have largely evolved from experience. Each drought tests institutions and society in distinctive ways. Yet it is questionable whether this empirical and heuristic approach is fit for purpose in the future, because the past is an incomplete guide to future conditions. The MaRIUS project will introduce and explore a risk-based approach to the management of droughts and water scarcity, drawing upon global experiences and insights from other hazards to society and the environment. MaRIUS will demonstrate, in the context of real case studies and future scenarios, how risk metrics can be used to inform management decisions and societal preparedness. Enquiry will take place at a range of different scales, from households and farms to river basins and national scales. Fine-scale granular analysis is essential for understanding drought impacts. Aggregation to broader scales provides evidence to inform critical decisions in water companies, national governments and agencies. Analysis on a range of timescales will demonstrate the interactions between long-term planning and short-term decision making, and the difference this makes to impacts and risks. Underpinning the risk-based approach to management of water scarcity, the MaRIUS project will develop an integrated suite of models of drought processes and impacts of water scarcity. A new 'event set' of past and possible future hydroclimatic drought conditions will enable extensive testing of drought scenarios. The representation of drought processes in hydrological models at catchment and national scales will be enhanced, enabling improved analysis of drought frequency, duration and severity. Models for assessment of the risks of harmful water quality, in rivers and reservoirs, will be developed. The representation of drought impacts in models of species abundance and biodiversity in rivers and wetland ecosystems, such as fens, lowland and upland bogs, will be enhanced. A model of agricultural practices and output will be used to analyse drought impacts on agriculture and investigate the benefits of preparatory steps that may be taken by farmers. The potential economic losses due to water scarcity will be analysed through a combination of 'bottom-up' study of households and businesses, and consideration of supply chain dependence on drought-sensitive industries. The environmental, economic and social dimensions of water scarcity will be synthesised into a computer visualisation tool (an 'impacts dashboard'). This will enable exploratory analysis of feedbacks between impacts. For example, agricultural land use changes, driven in part by drought frequency, will, in turn, influence water quality and ecosystems. The interdisciplinary analysis will enable comparison of likely outcomes arising from applying both pre-existing drought management arrangements (e.g. restrictions on water use, abstraction limits) and enhanced/innovative management strategies (e.g. use of outlook forecasts, dynamic tariffs). Social science and stakeholder engagement are deeply embedded in the MaRIUS project, which will be framed by a critical analysis of how impacts of droughts and water scarcity are currently understood and managed by key stakeholders, and how this is shaped by institutions, regulation and markets. First-hand experience and 'collective memory' of communities affected now, and historically, by water scarcity will provide new understandings of the social and cultural dimensions of droughts. On-going engagement between the project social scientists, natural scientists and stakeholders will help to ensure that the outputs from the MaRIUS project, including the 'impacts dashboard', are matched to their needs and to the evolving policy context.

Planetary boundaries of river water pollution are at risk of being breached, with dangerous consequences for human and environmental health, economic prosperity, and water security. The current paradigm for environmental management is predicated on understanding of average conditions. However, we know environmental pollution can vary markedly in space and time. This interdisciplinary Large Grant (co-created with non-academic partners and as NERC-NSF collaboration) will pioneer innovations in experimental analytics, data science and mathematical modelling to yield new mechanistic understandings of the dynamic drivers of multi-contaminant pollution hotspots (spaces) and hot moments (times) in a changing water world. The diagnosis of the impact of these locations and periods when average pollution conditions are far exceeded on large scale and long-term river basin water quality is critical to inform local and global adaptation and mitigation strategies for river pollution and develop interventions to keep within a safe(r) 'operating space' and improve water quality for people and the environment. SMARTWATER will therefore integrate environmental sensing, network and data science innovations, and mathematical modelling with stakeholders' catchment knowledge to transform the way we diagnose, understand, predict, and manage water pollution hotspots and hot moments. We will: 1. Pioneer the application of scalable field diagnostic technologies for water quality sensing and sampling for identifying and characterising multi-pollution hotspots and hot moments for emerging (e.g., wastewater indicators, pharmaceuticals, pesticides) and legacy (e.g., nutrients) contaminants. 2. Develop smart water quality monitoring network solutions at river basin scale based on integrating high-resolution networks of proxy water pollution indicators with multivariate UAV boat-based longitudinal river network sampling to understand the footprint, propagation and persistence of pollution hotspots and hot moments in river basins. 3. Develop and apply data science innovations integrating deep machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches for pollution source attribution and to identify how hotspots and hot moments of multi-pollutions dynamics results from pollution source activation, connectivity and river network transport and transformation. 4. Demonstrate the utility of the new generation of smart pollution data to improve the capacity of integrated river basin scale water quality models to adequately present and predict the emergence of pollution hotspots and hot moments including their large-scale footprint and longer-term relevance for catchment water pollution. 5. Co-create with our stakeholder community pathways for successfully implementing practical and policy relevant changes in water quality management practice and use the interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral expertise of our broad stakeholder base to inform knowledge generation and dissemination pipelines in SMARTWATER. The mechanistic process understanding and integrated technological and management solutions that will be developed in SMARTWATER will allow a step change in the diagnostics, prediction and management of water pollution and transform our ability to understand and tackle pollution pressures of increasing complexity in a rapidly changing environment.