Overview: We request funds to make measurements of the elapsed time since major earthquakes on active faults in central Italy using 36-Cl cosmogenic dating, and calculate stress transfer from historical/palaeoseismic earthquakes. This will allow (1) knowledge transfer to at-risk communities in the region so they can prepare for future earthquakes if a fault with a long earthquake elapsed time has had stress transferred onto it by a neighboring earthquake(s), and (2) communication of this process to other regions with similar earthquake hazard. Technical Summary: Active faults experience earthquake rupture due to stress transfer from neighboring earthquakes only if the fault in question is close to its failure stress. We lack knowledge of which faults are close to their failure stress and thus cannot interpret calculations of stress transfer in terms of the probability of impending earthquakes. We propose, for an active normal fault system in central Italy, to measure the elapsed time since the last earthquake normalised to fault slip-rates using in situ 36-Cl cosmogenic isotope dating, because this is a proxy for how close a fault is to its failure stress. We will combine this with calculations of stress transfer from historical and palaeoseismic earthquakes in order to calculate which faults have the highest probability of rupture. Background: When an earthquake ruptures an active fault, stress is transferred onto neighboring active faults. This transfer of stress may cause a neighboring active fault to rupture in a subsequent earthquake. For example, the 2004 Boxing day earthquake on the subduction plate boundary near Sumatra caused severe loss of life on that day, but also triggered subsequent earthquakes in 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010, each of which caused major loss of life. Such triggered earthquakes also occur on active faults within plates, such as the three 9th September > Mw 6 earthquakes in 1349 A.D. in central Italy, which occurred on the same day, but on different active faults; this has increased concern for the possibility of a future mainshock to follow the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) whose ongoing aftershocks have transferred onto a neighboring fault (Fig. 1). A key point is that, despite the above examples, earthquakes do not always trigger subsequent earthquakes. Subsequent earthquakes only occur if the neighboring fault(s) are already close to failure due to long-term loading from motions in the crust or between plates. Identification of such faults could inform local populations and civil protection agencies in advance of a future earthquake allowing location-prioritised mitigation efforts. However, unfortunately, we cannot directly measure stress on a fault at 12-15 km depth where intra-plate mainshocks nucleate and so cannot identify such faults. However, we can measure a proxy for stress-through-time, that is elapsed time since the last earthquake, using cosmogenic isotopes (36-Cl). In the sub-surface, 36-Cl concentrations accumulate through time mainly due to hits on calcium atoms by cosmic particles. With 1-2 m slip in each earthquake on active normal faults, and with knowledge of 36-Cl production rates at depth, 36-Cl concentrations measured at 1-2 metres depth quantify elapsed time since the last earthquake. We can dig trenches to expose the fault plane to 1-2 metres depth and measure 36-Cl concentrations on the fault planes. If a neighboring earthquake has loaded/stressed a location with a high 36-Cl concentration, and hence a long elapsed time, we will be able to inform civil protection agencies responsible for planning mitigation; no such data are available at present. We can make such measurements, and have ongoing links with government civil protection project partners who make the seismic hazard maps for central Italy, and who are involved in communicating seismic hazard worldwide.

The migration of birds from temperate and arctic breeding grounds to lower latitudes for the non-breeding season is a major global wildlife event, comprising billions of birds and providing an important component of global ecosystems. Some of these movements are truly amazing - some 12 gram birds fly 3000km non-stop to reach their non-breeding grounds. The majority of inter-continental terrestrial migrations are undertaken by songbirds, which migrate across broad fronts, often stopping to refuel on their journey. Despite intensive study on the breeding grounds, and to a lesser extent the non-breeding grounds and stop-over sites, research to simulate the migratory journeys themselves, or to test theoretic models of migration for such species, is rare. A generic model of migration has never been applied to songbirds undertaking the Europe- trans-Saharan migration; this is a major objective of this proposal. In light of projections of climate and land-use changes on the breeding, non-breeding and stop-over grounds of these species, such models are urgently required. Migrants could be especially vulnerable to climate change given their reliance on the linkage between widely-separated areas, which are potentially undergoing very different changes. The main limitation to developing and testing models of songbird migration has been an inability to monitor individual movements so as to understand their routes and strategies. The recent development of geolocator trackers, which record time and location and can be used on the smaller species that comprise the majority of migrants, has provided data to test migration models for the first time. Here, we will collate tracking, and extensive ringing and observation data for trans-Saharan migrants, to better understand their migratory routes and decisions. Simultaneously, we will develop flight models for individual species, which consider species-specific physiology and form to determine their flight-range potential. We will use the outputs in spatially-explicit dynamic programming (DP) models, and will test their ability to replicate observed patterns of migration. This will build on earlier work modelling optimal migration using very simple systems. We have already developed pilot flight range models that replicate well the timing and routes of migration of tracked individuals of species with near-linear migrations. Building on these data, we will use DP models, with realistic landscape resources/costs, to evaluate optimal migratory routes and refuelling locations given temporally-constrained destination rewards (i.e., likely breeding success). We will consider landscapes with dynamic resource availability, based on factors such as species-specific habitat preferences and likely food availability (based on weather and NDVI), and will include factors such as wind direction, location (relative to time of year) and an individual's energy stores to determine whether they should stay or, if not, where they should move to. We will use these models to explore inter-annual variation in arrival dates at migratory end-points, to aid understanding of what drives phenological changes in migratory species, and to test theories of what determines migratory decisions. Modelling formalises our understanding of migration, making explicit our assumptions and any gaps in available data. Crucially, it can also inform our understanding of the migratory process and how that process will be influenced by future environmental changes. The end product will be a much better understanding of the drivers of the routes and strategies of long-distance migrants, and a modelling framework that can be applied to a wide suite of migratory passerines in different regions, or under scenarios of climate and land-use change, to simulate consequences for migratory journeys.

As flood hazard, and the frequency of extreme floods in particular, is projected to increase in the future the risks associated with the impact of wood in rivers is also likely set to increase. Thus, in order effectively manage wood in river systems there is a need to understand and predict how the presence of wood will produce ecological benefits and how these benefits trade-off against the risks associated with its presence. This is not currently possible and this project seeks to address this significant knowledge gap. In order to improve understanding of this benefit-risk relationship there is a need to overcome major deficiencies in knowledge, including: (i) a lack of any attempt to systematically quantify the driving variables in wood dynamics and despite the rapid development and evolution of high-resolution measuring technologies there are inconsistencies in the type and methods of data collected. This means that there is limited capacity to validate predictive models of risk; (ii) research has been undertaken in an ad hoc manner and so many of the empirical relationships of the cost-benefits of wood dynamics have been drawn from case studies. Since the empirical relationships are used to underpin management strategies it is unclear of the global applicability of these sites beyond specific environments in which the relationships were derived, and (iii) limited understanding of how predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of flood events will serve to increase the risks posed by wood in river systems. By bringing the diverse skill set of the project partners together for the first time means that this network is now in a position to address these deficiencies. This proposal draws on the experience and expertise of all project partners who work across different global catchments representative of different hydroclimates and operationalise different management strategies. By doing this the network will deliver a globally derived and globally applicable standardised approach to both quantifying the impact of, and predicating current and future risks posed by, wood in rivers. The project will outcome 6 deliverables, including: D1 - A fully searchable interactive global digital risk atlas; D2 - A new series of directly comparable, standardised metrics and measuring protocols for quantifying, modelling and managing wood dynamics in rivers; D3 - A systems dynamics model which can be used to predict how key management interventions and environmental change scenarios affect risk associated with wood in rivers; D4 - A series of journal papers (included already outline agreed Nature Reviews article) to disseminate research findings to the academic and practitioner community; D5 - A series of funding proposals to underpin future sustainability of the network; and D6 - A series of events to further expand the scope of the network to the academic and practitioner communities.

At 3:36 AM on the 24th of August a magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck the Amatrice region. The shaking in this event caused nearly 300 deaths and significant damage to the villages distributed across the region. The earthquake ruptured across two faults, the Laga-Amatrice and Vettore faults, which were previously thought to be separate structures that could not rupture in a single event. Our team visited the region days after the event to begin scientific study of this earthquake, investigating the surface expression of the earthquake and installing GNSS equipment that will measure high-resolution motion of the ground continuously for weeks and months following the earthquake. Our team comprises UK and Italian scientists from the University of Leeds, University of Durham, Univeristy of London, Birkbeck University of London, University of Insurbia, the Italian Geological Survey (ISPRA), and Geospatial Research Ltd (Durham). Members of our team who are experts in using satellite data to investigate ground deformation (Durham) processed data in real-time to direct the initial field campaign. This project will aim to fully characterise the nature of the Amatrice earthquake in terms of what happened during and what is continuing to occur after the seismic event. We will use a variety of techniques including satellite radar measurements and modelling of co and post -seismic deformation, GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements of ground deformation, photogrammetry and laser scanning to make high resolution measurements of the surface rupture, detailed field work in the region of the earthquake, and modelling techniques to determine how this earthquake affected stress on the surrounding faults. The work is urgent due to the need to document post-seismic deformation in the weeks and months following the earthquake, and the degrading nature of the surface rupture. This research will allow us to investigate fault connectivity and how linkage develops. We will test hypotheses regarding the role of postseismic deformation after an earthquake that links previously independent structures. Fault linkage typically happens over long geological timescales and has never before been captured before with such a high quality dataset. Our results will be important for incorporating multi-fault rupturing earthquakes into future hazard assessments made in central Italy and globally.

Earthquake prediction, (where? how big? and when?) is currently not possible but recent, rapid developments in earthquake science have made progress on identification of regions of high seismic hazard on which mitigating actions and scarce resources can be focused. For many scientists, the goal of earthquake prediction has been superseded by the goal of targeted preparation of at-risk populations. Integrated earthquake science, much of it established and uncontested, has produced effective disaster risk reduction preparedness programmes which can be shown to work. In western Sumatra, for example, the city of Padang lies broadside on to the Mentawai Islands segment of the Sunda megathrust which has been shown to be advanced in its seismic cycle and nearing failure in a large earthquake. This event will likely generate a destructive tsunami and, without preparation, a death toll on the same scale as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is thought possible. The population of the city have been the subject of intensive preparedness work based on the current insights from integrated earthquake and tsunami science. On 30 September 2009 an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 hit the city killing some 1200 people. Interestingly, this earthquake ruptured deep in the crust and did not cause any vertical movements of the seafloor and therefore did not generate a tsunami but no one in Padang knew this, it was perfect dry run for the expected earthquake. Later forensic studies of the response of Padang residents show that large numbers of people evacuated the city according to the evacuation plan and many lives would have been saved had the earthquake been tsunamigenic. Unfortunately in developing countries, where the risk to lives is highest, examples of excellent practice in utilising uncontested earthquake science are too rare, and thus avoidable loss of life to earthquakes and their associated hazards is too common. The 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake is a case in point, here, despite several publications in international earthquake science journals warning of the impending threat of an earthquake of magnitude around 7, the population and NGO's working with them remained completely ignorant of the threat and more than 230000 people died when the earthquake (M=7.1) occurred. We aim to change this balance. In this project we will put together an international team of earthquake scientists, NGO actors and government agencies and develop a large consortium project aimed at the integration and demonstration of cutting-edge, hybrid methods in earthquake science in parallel with the development of partnerships and methodologies for dissemination, utilisation and contextualisation of the best methods for disaster risk reduction programming in developing countries. The consortium project will do cutting-edge applied science by taking the best of current methods from different earthquake science fields, all of which have been shown to work, and combine them to produce protocols to identify regions of highest earthquake hazard. We will then take examples of international best practice, like Padang, in preparedness and work with social scientists and end users in the NGO and government agencies to ensure that the lessons from these examples are learned on a global basis so that the at-risk populations can fully avail of the state-of-the-art earthquake science. To enable appropriate use of earthquake science, the consortium will identify the most effective forms of science policy dialogue and develop innovative approaches which best support the effective communication and application of earthquake science for ARCs. This science policy learning will be of enormous transferable value, enabling learning from across scientific fields concerning future vulnerability to directly inform and support at risk communities.