This project will apply two distinctly demographic concepts to research questions that go far beyond demography. The wellbeing indicators proposed here will be based on life table methods and the recently operationalized concept of Demographic Metabolism – modelling social change through the replacement of generations – will be used to get a quantitative analytical handle on the temporal dynamics of improving human wellbeing. The project will theoretically develop, empirically estimate, test and forecast indicators of human wellbeing that are based on life table methods and hence reflect the basic – but often overlooked fact – that being alive is a necessary prerequisite for enjoying any quality of life. But since mere survival is not sufficient as an ultimate goal for most people the person years lived at each age will be weighted with four different dimensions of empowerment: health, literacy, happiness and being out of poverty. These are four dimensions of an indicator tentatively called ELY (Empowered Life Years). ELY will also serve as the explanandum of a global level econometric estimation of the determinants of wellbeing considering human, manufactured and natural capitals as well as knowledge and institutions. The global level analysis is complemented by a set of strategically chosen in-depth systems-analytical case studies in Namibia/Western Cape, Nepal, Costa Rica and historical Finland modelling the population-development-environment (PDE) interactions including feed-backs e.g. from environmental degradation to wellbeing and taking the trends of ELY in different sub-populations as sustainability criteria. They will also include stake holder involvement and science-policy interactions. This innovative inter-disciplinary cross-fertilisation can potentially make an important contribution to the current discussions about operationalizing the criteria and end goal of sustainable development and developing better human wellbeing based metrics of progress.

Policies in developing countries that seek to fight hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture (a United Nations Sustainable Development Goal), face considerable obstacles when confronted with disruptions of their staple food production and trade. Disruptions such as climate change along with inter-state conflicts, e.g., the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, have weakened developing countries’ staple food yields, supply, and trade flows. For trade in particular, challenges include physical trade disruptions of agricultural outputs, as well as inputs, particularly in more vulnerable regions. These disruptions are often followed by government trade interventions. A critical dimension of food risk and security is staple food trade dependencies between countries. Such dependencies occur both directly, in terms of regional food security, and indirectly increase migration as well as gender vulnerabilities. Indirect dependencies emerge from the complex web of trade relationships in which a country's access to staple foods relies not only on direct imports from producing nations but also on re-exports facilitated by intermediary countries. In the case of disruption shocks, such a trade system may expose importing countries to vulnerabilities at various intermediary points. For example, the Russian-Ukraine war has exposed the vulnerability of countries directly importing staple foods and fertilizers from the two countries, but also heavily affected countries that rely on the re-export of staple foods. The project F-TRADEMARK aims to measure the vulnerability of nations’ food systems resilience based on global trade data from 1986 – 2020 using network-based assessment tools. Moreover, the future of staple food and fertilizer trade dependence will be predicted under different short-term and long-term shocks up to the year 2100.