This project aims to develop, and to provide a range of mechanisms to support interdisciplinary collaborations that use and develop new mathematics for understanding climate variability and impact on resilience. Focusing on three scientific themes the project will nurture connections between mathematicians, statisticians, environmental scientists, policy makers and end users working in impact areas to help to identify high-risk and high-return research that will develop collaborations in the areas of the themes. We will do this by a range of tools, including a series of managed events (workshops, sandpits, study groups and e-seminars) that will focus on specific problems to end users as well as promoting novel collaborations in the areas of scientific focus. We will provide a mechanism to solicit, evaluate and fund proposals for feasibility studies that work across this area. This will be informed by an expert panel of researchers as well as an advisory panel taken from national and international groups and end-users.

The vulnerability of extensive near-coastal habitation, infrastructure, and trade makes global sea-level rise a major global concern for society. The UK coastline, for example, has ~£150 billion of assets at risk from coastal flooding, of which with £75 billion in London alone. Consequently, most nations have developed/ implemented protection plans, which commonly use ranges of sea-level rise estimates from global warming scenarios such as those published by IPCC, supplemented by worst-case values from limited geological studies. UKCP09 provides the most up-to-date guidance on UK sea-level rise scenarios and includes a low probability, high impact range for maximum UK sea level rise for use in contingency planning and in considerations regarding the limits to potential adaptation (the H++ scenario). UKCP09 emphasises that the H++ scenario is unlikely for the next century, but it does introduce significant concerns when planning for longer-term future sea-level rise. Currently, the range for H++ is set to 0.9-1.9 m of rise by the end of the 21st century. This range of uncertainty is large (with vast planning and financial implications), and - more critically - it has no robust statistical basis. It is important, therefore, to better understand the processes controlling the maximum sea-level rise estimate for the future on these time-scales. This forms the overarching motivation for the consortium project proposed here. iGlass is a broad-ranging interdisciplinary project that will integrate field data and modelling, in order to study the response of ice volume/sea level to different climate states during the last five interglacials, which include times with significantly higher sea level than the present. This will identify the likelihood of reduced ice cover over Greenland and West Antarctica, an important constraint on future sea-level projections. A key outcome will be to place sound limits on the likely ice-volume contribution to maximum sea-level rise estimates for the future. Our project is guided by three key questions: Q1. What do palaeo-sea level positions reveal about the global ice-volume/sea-level changes during a range of different interglacial climate states? Q2. What were the rates of sea-level rise in past interglacials, and to what extent are these relevant for future change, given the different climate forcing? Q3. Under a range of given (IPCC) climate projection scenarios, what are the projected limits to maximum sea-level rise over the next few centuries when accounting for ice-sheet contributions? The research will directly inform decision-making processes regarding flood risk management in the UK and abroad. In this respect, the project benefits from the close co-operation with scientists and practitioners in the UK Environment Agency, UKCIP, the UK insurance industry, as well as the wider global academic and user communities.

Climate change is arguably the biggest challenge facing people this century, and changes to the intensity and frequency of climatic and hydrologic extremes will have large impacts on our communities. We use climate models to tell us about what weather in the future will be like and these computer models are based on fundamental physical laws and complicated mathematical equations which necessarily simplify real processes. One of the simplifications that really seems to matter is that of deep convection (imagine the type of processes that cause a thunderstorm). However, computers are so powerful now that we are able to produce models that work on smaller and smaller scales, and recently we have developed models which we call "convection-permitting" where we stop using these simplifications of deep convection. These "convection-permitting" models are not necessarily better at simulating mean rainfall or rainfall occurrence but they are much better at simulating heavy rainfall over short time periods (less than one day) which cause flooding, in particular flash-flood events. They are also better at simulating the increase in heavy rainfall with temperature rise that we can observe; therefore we are more confident in their projections of changes in heavy rainfall for the future. A few "convection-permitting" modelling experiments have now been run for different parts of the world but all of these have been over small regions, only the same size as the UK, or smaller. All of the experiments so far have concentrated on rainfall and none have examined how "convection-permitting" models might improve the simulation of other types of extreme weather such as hail, lightning or windstorms. In fact we know very little about how these types of extremes might change in the future. We also have no idea of the uncertainty in our experiments in terms of our predictions of future changes as we have only run one model simulation in each region - this is not useful for planning climate adaptation strategies where we really need to understand the uncertainties in our future predictions so we can plan for them. In FUTURE-STORMS we are running these "convection-permitting" models over a very large area (the whole of Europe) and we are comparing models from two different climate modelling teams at the UK Met Office and ETH Zurich in Switzerland. In addition to this we are now able to run a number of different climate models over the same region, which allows us to assess some of the uncertainties in future changes to heavy rainfall and other storm-related extreme weather. This will let us explore how heavy rainfall might change across Europe and what might be causing this. It will also allow us to look at whether these new models are able to simulate other types of extreme weather like hail, lightning and windstorms which have a huge impact on Europe, and how these might change in the future. Ultimately, we need better information on how extreme weather events might change in the future on which to make adaptation decisions and FUTURE-STORMS intends to provide this important advance, alongside translating this information into useful tools and metrics for use in climate change adaptation.

The first Complex Built Environment Systems (CBES) Platform Grant consolidated a truly interdisciplinary, world-leading research group which focussed on the complexity of the context of our research activities and seeded a new Institute (UCL Energy). The second Platform Grant underpinned the development of a strategic programme of fundamental research aimed at understanding the unintended consequences of decarbonising the built environment, enabled CBES to become a world leader in this area and seeded three new UCL Institutes (Environmental Design & Engineering, Sustainable Heritage and Sustainable Resources). Supported by a third Platform Grant, our vision for CBES is now to transform scientific understanding of the systemic nature of a sustainable built environment. In a recent award-winning paper, resulting from our work under the current Platform Grant, we identified over 100 unintended consequences of energy efficiency interventions in homes. Taking moisture as just one example, we can demonstrate why a systems thinking approach is now so vital. By 2030, it will be government policy that every home in the UK will benefit from measures to improve energy efficiency. This is approximately 25 million homes - all our homes will be affected in some way. The total cost will be ~ £10 billion a year. The UK only has the chance once to do this correctly. Unfortunately, it is now clear that we are not dealing with these complex issues correctly. For example, a recent low energy refurbishment of ~400 dwellings in the north of England has had a 100% failure rate due to disastrous moisture issues which will cost millions to rectify. This has huge implications for the entire decarbonisation plan, for the health of the building occupants, for the communities involved and for the economic value of these properties. For the issue of moisture therefore, we have taken the decisive step to set up the new 'UK Centre for Moisture in Buildings' to link building engineering physics, health, building use, quality and process in a coherent way. Our thesis therefore, more widely, is that the built environment is a complex system that can only be successfully tackled via a new interdisciplinary systems thinking approach - performance emerges from the interplay of fundamental engineering and physical factors with process and structure. Such a systems thinking process was piloted in our project 'Housing, Energy and Wellbeing' (HEW) in the current Platform Grant and has led to close collaboration with a very large body of stakeholders from government, industry, NGOs and community groups who provide an invaluable resource for future research. Enabling this new, systemically integrated approach to built environment research will require a major change in the way we undertake our research - this will be a fundamental departure from business as usual. The development of such a novel methodological framework and the associated re-structuring and development of an interdisciplinary research group will involve a strategic, long-term perspective as well as some risk. The flexible Platform funding will be vital here in that it will enable approaches not possible with responsive mode funding. There are also likely to be some key policy changes in this specific area over the next 5 years - Platform funding will enable us to react to research opportunities in a timely manner and dynamically maintain research leadership in the field. The careers of CBES team members will be managed and developed through strategic action. Career development activities specifically enabled by Platform funding will include: (i) a new series of regular 'systems thinking' workshops to develop personal research agendas within our broader system of research; (ii) new industrial/policy mentoring via secondments; (iii) new skills training for staff through external training courses; (iv) enhanced stakeholder engagement via our unique series of regular workshops.

Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing societies in the coming century but there are important gaps in our understanding of how climate change might affect local and regional scale hydrology. In particular, we do not know how European rainfall patterns might change. Observations of rainfall suggest that there have been increases in northern and central Europe, especially in winter, and also increases in rainfall intensity. These changes are consistent with atmospheric physics which indicate that warmer air can hold more moisture. We use climate models to examine how climate might change in the future and these suggest more frequent and intense heavy rainfall even in regions experiencing lower rainfall totals. This may cause an increase in the risk of flooding of the sort witnessed over the last decade across the UK and Europe. Although climate model ability to simulate observed processes has improved in recent years, there are still biases in their outputs due to uncertainties in the levels of future greenhouse gas emissions, due to the large-scale resolution of climate models compared to many natural processes and due to natural variations in the climate. There is also a lack of climate model simulations on the small scale needed to model some of the heaviest rainfall events, in particular summer storms. This research advances the study of extreme climate events by looking at the causes of climate model biases in the simulation of extreme rainfall, particularly with regards to heavy summer storms. We will first identify the historical characteristics of heavy rainfall using observed storms and, after we have identified the atmospheric causes for these events, we will try to provide physically-based explanations for any detected trends. Climate models represent physical processes in different ways and this can have an important influence on the simulation of heavy rainfall. We will assess which of these affect the simulation of heavy rainfall by comparing different model simulations with observations. Weather forecasting and climate models will also be run at a 1.5km resolution to see if such models are able to tell us more about how heavy rainfall events such as thunderstorms might change in the future. This research will provide new estimates of future changes to heavy rainfall and examine the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for such changes. This information will tell us which aspects of heavy rainfall and relevant processes are simulated well by models and which projections for the future we should use in informing any adaptation to climate change. Those that are not will be identified and this research will provide guidance on improvements that are needed in the next generation of climate models as well as weather forecasting models. As we use many different climate models, we can also produce estimates of how uncertain we are about future changes in extreme rainfall and flood risk. The summer 2007 floods cost the UK over £3 billion and the UK Government has announced increased annual budgets for flood risk management that will reach £800 million by 2010 but when and should this investment be prioritised. The Pitt Review in 2008 suggested that more information is needed for 'urgent and fundamental changes in the way the country is adapting to the likelihood of more frequent and intense periods of heavy rainfall'. We need to know how heavy rainfall and flood risks may change in the future, particularly for surface water flooding which is very poorly understood. The information provided by this research is vital for agencies responsible for future flood risk planning and management such as the Environment Agency, DEFRA and the Emergency Services and crucial for updating the climate change allowances used in flood risk management.