Buildings must provide a comfortable internal environment for their users but how they perform depends on the weather to which they are exposed. The UK climate is already changing and this will demand different approaches to the way buildings are designed. However, the climate of the future cannot be predicted with complete certainty and this is reflected in the future climate scenarios being developed under the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP08), which are to be presented in probabilistic terms. This means that the information will be given in the form There is a 5% probability that the temperature will be greater than (value) . This uncertainty is unfamiliar for building designers, who are used to taking fixed extreme summer or winter conditions and designing cooling, ventilation and heating systems of sufficient capacity to cope with these design conditions. Consequently, there is a risk that buildings may not perform as designed, either because the building systems cannot adapt to the changing climate or because systems are over specified to deal with a climate scenario that does not happen. Future building performance is additionally constrained by the need to minimise CO2 emissions, so it is not appropriate or sustainable to simply build in over-capacity, for example by providing air-conditioning everywhere to cope with future summer weather. Equally, highly insulated and well sealed low-energy buildings may overheat as a result of the heat gained from the occupants and the equipment they use. These factors are likely to see a departure from the current way in which buildings are conceived and designs carried out as designers will need to take account of the frequency of occurrence of particular external conditions in selecting design criteria. This proposed project aims to develop a method of linking these probabilistic UKCIP08 climate scenarios to the requirements of the community of building services engineers. It will produce a practical method of designing economic and environmentally friendly heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems in both existing and new buildings. The method will be based on probabilistic data but will not require the user to understand sophisticated statistical theory.The project has several interlinked parts. The UKCIP08 data will be transformed statistically to give a set of simple design conditions which can be used by practitioners. A series of criteria will be developed to identify acceptable levels of building performance in the field of human comfort and systems provision. The performance of a series of case studies will be simulated from the probabilistic climate scenarios against these criteria. The experience of a senior building user group will be collected in order to quantify what needs to be known about building performance and the acceptability of risk so that buildings can be designed or adapted to accommodate the changing UK climate. The outcome will be a set of case study buildings in various UK locations which designers can call upon to support their decisions.

Thermal efficiency retrofit options, appliance upgrades and on-site renewables represent a significant opportunity to deliver energy demand reductions to UK homes. The potential to reduce thermal heat losses through insulation and airtightness (in particular in pre-1980s housing), upgrade the household appliance stock (using the latest energy saving models) and integrated on-site renewables and microgeneration (developing a 'prosumer' culture and reducing energy bills) still remains largely unrealised. There are a number of challenges in providing advice for retrofit solutions to consumers which will promote behaviour change and influence purchasing decisions. Currently consumer information is based on standardised methodologies for nominal house types and the resulting predictions of energy savings have minimal resemblance to reality where the thermal efficiency of the dwelling, efficiency of heating system and appliances, occupancy, user behaviour and preferences will have a significant impact on the effectiveness and uptake of retrofit measures. One solution is to provide consumers with personalised, accurate and trustworthy predictions of energy saving measures which are calibrated and tailored to their dwelling and living patterns, presented in a format to engage and promote action. This proposal will facilitate a widespread uptake of retrofit measures in UK homes by implementing a holistic approach to providing consumers with personalised, tailored retrofit advice delivered using methods to maximise consumer engagement. Smart Home technology provides a unique opportunity to use real-time measurements, advanced data analytics, digital signal processing and communications techniques, novel visualisation, semantic web and cloud computing technologies to generate advice at different levels of abstraction for informed and justified decision making. The Smart Home concept is currently gaining significant momentum and new developments in open systems, simple use and installation features (ie plug and play), mobile access (ie Smart Phones) and connectivity have brought the concept to the attention of energy companies, ICT companies and appliance manufacturers. The IBM vision of a Smart(er) Home gives three characteristics: 1) Instrumented (sensors and automation of household activities); 2) Interconnected (communication between devices and wider networks - allowing remote access and control of devices); and 3) Intelligent ('the ability to make decisions based on data, leading to better outcomes'). Smart Homes provide consumers with more control over their homes and energy systems and, importantly, how their energy demand and costs can be reduced through interventions. This proposal brings together a multi-disciplinary team of building, ICT, energy, design and user experts to develop a personalised decision support platform for building envelope retrofits, heating system and appliance replacement purchases, and on-site renewables integration. This will deliver a step-change in the provision and accuracy of retrofit advice to UK householders leading to a low-energy and low-carbon future housing stock. The outcomes will be of benefit to: energy, ICT, embedded systems and telecommunication companies developing technology and business models for Smart Home services; consumers to lower their energy bills and improve the safety, security and comfort of their homes; building component, boiler and appliance manufacturers developing the next generation of low-energy products; and policy makers for new insights into innovative approaches to meeting the security, affordability and carbon reduction aspirations of the UK energy system.

Research into the development and application of sustainable construction, renewable energy applications and energy management technologies, including their economic and social impacts, is the main thrust of the Centre. Attention will also extend to the way in which the adoption and use of such technologies can be enhanced through procurement and other policy levers. In particular, research in the Centre will be focused on the following two complementary themes:1. Sustainable building and services systems:The emphasis of this theme is on developing new concepts in the design, construction, operation and maintenance of sustainable building and through-life service systems. The impact of climate change and the modelling of the local environment and its interaction with the built environment as well as sustainable procurement and the diffusion of innovative sustainable technologies will also be included. The aim is to achieve lower carbon emission in the construction and operation of buildings and their environmental control systems.2. Energy management in buildings and infrastructure systems:This theme concerns the integration of low- to zero-carbon energy generation systems in buildings and infrastructure systems, demand management technologies (e.g. smart meters, consumption feedback devices, utility load management), and building energy management technologies. The theme addresses the systems integration of sources of supply, demand and storage within a geographically defined area to achieve local area supply-demand matching. The emphasis will be on analysis, integration and management of existing energy technologies at the site scale and the factors governing their adoption within the construction industry.These activities will be delivered with the supporting research areas below:- Climate, climate change and the built environment- Sustainable materials and structures- Innovation, design and sustainable technologies- Informatics for sustainable technologiesA key aspect of this proposal is that the EngD training programme should be sufficiently flexible to cater for the varying needs of the Research Engineers (REs) who will be based in industry, but employed by the University. In addition to the research programme, candidates will undertake a mixture of core and elective modules, some of which are currently offered in the University for PhD research students and existing MSc programmes. The taught programme will be an integral part of the EngD programme and supports the research that the REs will be carrying out at the sponsoring companies. The taught programme is planned to fulfil the following objectives:- Provide up-to-date knowledge of the relationship between engineering research, innovative technologies, and sustainability with emphasis on application to the built environment and energy management.- Deliver professional development in management and business skills that are necessary for dealing with constantly changing legislative environment particularly in relation to energy utilisation.- Fill any knowledge gaps that may arise from the research project.The training will be carried out with the full collaboration of the companies sponsoring the research engineers. The participating companies are also expected to contribute to an enhanced stipend to attract the best talent. The Research Engineers will be registered full-time on the EngD degree course.