A large number of highly damaging invasive non-native species (INNS) have become established in South America. They affect native species, ecosystems and livelihoods. Many INNS are now so widespread that eradication is not an option. Their spread must be contained and their density reduced, in the long-term, in those areas where taking no action is not acceptable. This must be done as cost effectively as possible, and consider: By how much should INNS density be reduced? This depends on the resources available for management and on the relationship between the abundance of the focal INNS and the harm it causes to people and biodiversity. Considering what harm would be caused in the future if no action was taken now is also important. How should the desired reduction be achieved? Different individuals in a population contribute differently to spread. Thus, targeting the right age classes or acting in different seasons should be informed by the biology of the species (e.g. large pines produce more seeds than small ones). Where should the species be reduced? The areas invaded by INNS are often vast and spatial prioritisation is necessary. INNS are not equally damaging in all areas. Some ecosystems and human activities can withstand low density INNS presence, while others are so vulnerable they cannot tolerate even low INNS density. An example is the critically endangered hooded grebe in Austral Patagonia, driven to near extinction by the introduced American mink. The cost of managing INNS also varies spatially, especially in South America, where some areas are very difficult to access and the workforce is sparse. A further important consideration is that INNS are mobile. They have been able to spread when they first invaded, and can re-invade areas from which they have been removed through dispersal. This is both a challenge and an opportunity if management can exploit known patterns of spread. Ecologists have been studying dispersal dynamics in detail for decades, but have rarely used this knowledge to design effective management interventions. For instance, it may be possible to deplete a mobile INNS by intensively removing it from a small, highly attractive area, hence cost-effectively "vacuuming" a much larger area, or the spread of a plant INNS may be contained by making the establishment of seeds unlikely through spatially targeted land management. We will design and introduce to stakeholders a user-friendly decision tool that we expect will become widely used in Latin America. To make sure our approach is relevant for different contexts in Latin America, we will work with example species that have large impacts, and for which data already exist (invasive pines, privet, and mink). We will also model plausible scenarios for data-poor pine species, exotic grasses and carnivorous wasps, which impact local communities in Brazil, Argentina and Chile. We will find the most effective strategic management using sophisticated computer simulations considering species ecology, dispersal and intervention costs in a spatial context. We will identify where new data would most effectively reduce uncertainty on the best course of action. The problem we tackle is complex, and we will embed it in a process of co-operative adaptive management, so that managers continually improve their effectiveness by confronting different models to data. We will also use our project as a way to build research capacity in Latin America, by training early career researchers and PhD students by means of research visits, continuous collaboration and workshops. Our project will have a tangible positive and immediate impact on people and biodiversity in Latin America by delivering a step-change in the management of problematic INNS.

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Insect pollinators have undergone declines across the world, a result of factors including intensive agriculture, habitat loss, climate change and invasive species. This represents a major concern in Latin America (LATAM) where it threatens economically important crops and wider biodiversity. The impact of these losses in LATAM remains poorly understood, undermining the capacity to develop policies vital to mitigate pollinator losses and support both agricultural production and wider ecosystem health. A new, coherent evidence base is required, that considers impacts on individual species, their distributions and populations, the landscapes they persist in and their unique capacities to deliver pollination to different crops. Without this it will not be possible to develop the applied experimental and modelling solutions policy makers need to deliver sustainable farming economies. This proposal builds on Newton Phase 1 project SURPASS, an international collaboration between 37 participants, that identified knowledge gaps, issues, and research areas that prioritise conservation and sustainable use of LATAM pollinators. The SURPASS2 goal is to deliver evidence for the creation of resilient pollination services for sustainable economic growth, improved human health and wellbeing as well as positive environmental and agricultural outcomes. This will be addressed by five main objectives, co-designed with academics and stakeholders that establish interconnected work packages that build capacity to manage pollination services and provide tangible outcomes. Our goals will be delivered through 4 work packages: WP1) Monitoring populations and understanding their distributions: before any effective solution can be developed to manage LATAM pollinators it is crucial that we understand the current distribution of species and develop and trial approaches for long term monitoring. Only by understanding where pollinators can be found can we develop applied solutions to manage them. We will design a standardised framework to assess the status and trends of pollinator populations through existing and new monitoring schemes, including citizen science. WP2) How does the environment in which pollinators live affect them, and how does this affect capacity to provide crop pollination: Land use change and land management represent fundamental factors affecting pollinator populations. We will undertake detailed landscape scale experiments across LATAM focusing on production of economically significant crops to understand how landscape management affects pollinators and the pollination services they supply. This will provide data for models and help growers, land managers and policy makers to optimise pollination to sustainably increase crop yields and quality. We will also quantify how invasive species of pollinators impact on wild and native insect pollinators and plants. WP3) Understanding national scale deficits in pollination for key crops identifying areas where pollination services are at high risk. Using cutting edge satellite imagery we will map nationally the occurrence of key insect pollinated crops. We will link this data to the distribution of insect pollinator communities to assess if these populations provide adequate pollination, as well as modelling how resilient these communities are to species losses. As each species of insect pollinator is unique their loss can have potentially huge consequences for agricultural production. WP4) Develop a national scale predictive framework to support policy goals of maximising benefits for agricultural productivity provided by pollination. This will integrate results from WP1-3 to model pollinator communities to develop effective strategies for decision making processes for different stakeholders that benefit from insect pollination. This will provide the framework to work with stakeholders to produce a roadmap for maximising pollination services and long term monitoring in LATAM.

Insect pollinators have undergone declines across the world, a result of factors including intensive agriculture, habitat loss, climate change and invasive species. This represents a major concern in Latin America (LATAM) where it threatens economically important crops and wider biodiversity. The impact of these losses in LATAM remains poorly understood, undermining the capacity to develop policies vital to mitigate pollinator losses and support both agricultural production and wider ecosystem health. A new, coherent evidence base is required, that considers impacts on individual species, their distributions and populations, the landscapes they persist in and their unique capacities to deliver pollination to different crops. Without this it will not be possible to develop the applied experimental and modelling solutions policy makers need to deliver sustainable farming economies. This proposal builds on Newton Phase 1 project SURPASS, an international collaboration between 37 participants, that identified knowledge gaps, issues, and research areas that prioritise conservation and sustainable use of LATAM pollinators. The SURPASS2 goal is to deliver evidence for the creation of resilient pollination services for sustainable economic growth, improved human health and wellbeing as well as positive environmental and agricultural outcomes. This will be addressed by five main objectives, co-designed with academics and stakeholders that establish interconnected work packages that build capacity to manage pollination services and provide tangible outcomes. Our goals will be delivered through 4 work packages: WP1) Monitoring populations and understanding their distributions: before any effective solution can be developed to manage LATAM pollinators it is crucial that we understand the current distribution of species and develop and trial approaches for long term monitoring. Only by understanding where pollinators can be found can we develop applied solutions to manage them. We will design a standardised framework to assess the status and trends of pollinator populations through existing and new monitoring schemes, including citizen science. WP2) How does the environment in which pollinators live affect them, and how does this affect capacity to provide crop pollination: Land use change and land management represent fundamental factors affecting pollinator populations. We will undertake detailed landscape scale experiments across LATAM focusing on production of economically significant crops to understand how landscape management affects pollinators and the pollination services they supply. This will provide data for models and help growers, land managers and policy makers to optimise pollination to sustainably increase crop yields and quality. We will also quantify how invasive species of pollinators impact on wild and native insect pollinators and plants. WP3) Understanding national scale deficits in pollination for key crops identifying areas where pollination services are at high risk. Using cutting edge satellite imagery we will map nationally the occurrence of key insect pollinated crops. We will link this data to the distribution of insect pollinator communities to assess if these populations provide adequate pollination, as well as modelling how resilient these communities are to species losses. As each species of insect pollinator is unique their loss can have potentially huge consequences for agricultural production. WP4) Develop a national scale predictive framework to support policy goals of maximising benefits for agricultural productivity provided by pollination. This will integrate results from WP1-3 to model pollinator communities to develop effective strategies for decision making processes for different stakeholders that benefit from insect pollination. This will provide the framework to work with stakeholders to produce a roadmap for maximising pollination services and long term monitoring in LATAM.

Plankton are organisms that in essence drift in the oceans. They range from microbial organisms to jelly fish and krill. Plankton have played a key role in planetary ecosphere functioning (having produced half of the atmospheric oxygen that we breath, and also most of the limestone and much of the non-coal fossil fuels). They continue to play an important role in climate change events, food sustainability (fisheries), down to local societal levels in harmful algal blooms and sea-snot (beach foam) events. This project will provide the foundation for pivotal developments in marine science, namely configuring plankton for the digital twins of the oceans. Digital twins (DTs) are computer-based analogues for real systems; well-known examples are flight simulators and many reality-based video game platforms. DTs are heavily used in engineering and in business, providing design and testing platforms. They are especially useful for 'what-if?' testing. However, it is critical that the end user has trust that the platform they are using does indeed describe a digital twin that would be deemed satisfactory to experts in the real system. This work comprises essential underpinning for the UK and international initiatives to produce within this decade digital twins of oceanic processes of societal importance, including the United Nations Digital Twins of the Oceans (DITTO) initiative. The idea behind DITTO, for example, is to see the generation of DT platforms, freely available to the public with a suitable graphic-user-interface, to support education, management and decision making. Some of these may be within game-like platforms to engage and inform the public about plankton (why their local beach is out-of-bounds due to harmful algal bloom or jelly-fish, for example), while other platforms will support science policy and management. Despite the critical importance of plankton in marine ecology, the current generation of computer descriptions ('models') provides only a poor caricature of the real organisms that is quite unsuitable for digital twin applications. The reasons for this include a lack of suitable data to directly support modelling, and a hitherto poor interaction between modelers and those empiricists who study real plankton. The project will work by exploiting 'expert witness validation', an approach similar to that of the famous Turing test for artificial intelligence, which aims to produce models that are sufficiently realistic in their behaviour that experts in the subject (plankton) cannot tell the difference. The project will work with experts in each plankton group to reach a consensus on what computer models of different plankton types should behave like such that they could be considered as a 'digital twin'. The one-year project will see the production of reference-type materials (such as check-lists, and example response patterns) to guide future development of plankton models, specifically for digital twin applications to ensure that the description of these organisms accords with the expectations of experts in the field.