Global carbon emissions must decline rapidly to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change. Independent government advisers, the Committee on Climate Change, recently stated that the UK should reach net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. This means that the UK's emissions of greenhouse gases should not exceed its ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Achieving this target will mean far-reaching changes to the economy, and to the way that people live in their homes, and travel. Yet so far, as the Committee notes, "To date, much of the success in reducing UK emissions has been invisible to the public... reaching net-zero emissions will require more involvement from people." A crucial challenge over the coming decade, then, will be to find ways to encourage and enable people to contribute to this shift to zero-carbon. This proposal looks at one crucial aspect of this shift. It examines how the energy system could be managed better, to achieve these climate change goals, and to make the most of the innovation in energy products and services. Such innovation includes the decentralisation of energy generation technologies, integration between heat, electricity and transport technologies, and increasing digitalisation and data-driven services. The project looks in particular at how to improve governance of the energy system. Governance is defined as the rules, regulations and institutions that govern the way the system is run. At the moment, in energy governance, individuals are understood primarily as 'consumers' of electricity, gas and transport fuel. Yet innovative technologies and business models give individuals the opportunity to shift away from a passive consumption role, to instead generate and store their own power, adjust how much electricity they take from the grid, and reduce their demand. This project examines how governance can be reshaped, to make the most of this innovation, and to support and build engagement for rapid carbon reduction. The project will learn from existing case studies of innovation, to develop a series of proposals, or 'Pathways', which describe how the future energy system could be governed. These Pathways will be discussed at a set of deliberative workshops. The workshops will allow representative groups of citizens to debate the future of the energy system together with businesses, and regulators and government organisations who manage the system. At the workshops, these three groups will discuss ways in which the energy system could be governed, and work together to propose new policies and approaches. Comparisons will also be made with other regions and countries, including Denmark, Sweden and the US states of California and New York. The evidence from the project will be used by project partners the Committee on Climate Change and the Energy Systems Catapult, as well as other organisations, to develop the advice that they give to government. Businesses will also be able to use the evidence to test and develop new business models. The research will develop guidelines for involving people in decisions about energy governance, based on the experience of the deliberative workshops. These guidelines will also inform the work of project partners and other organisations. Ultimately, the project aims to find ways to better engage citizens in rapid carbon reduction, in order to achieve the UK's energy and climate goals.

Across the UK, 80% of the heating in buildings and industries is generated using natural gas [1]. According to the Department for Business, Energy & Industry Strategy, transitioning to electricity, hydrogen and bioenergy have the potential to make a significant contribution toward low carbon heating. With respect to hydrogen, one potential approach is to use the existing natural gas distribution grid to transport hydrogen. In this research we explore a zero-carbon emission ICHP energy network concept for decarbonising heating and cooling through the production, distribution and utilisation of hydrogen. At the national scale, existing gas grid infrastructure would be modified and used to deliver natural gas and hydrogen produced from clean sources to distributed ICHP energy centres across the UK. At the local scale, intelligent thermal networks, would convert this hydrogen and distribute its energy as electricity, heating or cooling across urban areas in localised industry and residential networks. Furthermore, ICHP energy centres would also offer additional flexibility, resilience etc. and provide an opportunity to integrate transport energy services through the provision of hydrogen fuelling and electric vehicle fast charging. The project will be focus on investigating the role and value of the ICHP concept in supporting cost effective heat sector decarbonisation and transition to low carbon whole-energy system. The aim of the proposal will enable in depth assess of the role of ICHP concept from whole system perspective by: - Quantifying the techno-economic value of ICHP based heat sector decarbonisation in the whole-energy system context, considering infrastructure investment and operating costs for different carbon emissions targets in short, medium and long term. - Identifying and quantifying the benefits of flexibility options (i.e., energy storage, demand side response, hydrogen-based flexible gas plants). - Assessing the role of ICHP paradigm in enhancing the electricity system resiliency, given that the extreme weather conditions should be considered when planning low carbon energy system. Outputs will be technical evidence of the potential of the technology for stakeholders across the whole system (policy, national, local and consumers).

The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types". ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.

Transforming the heat system is an urgent priority for the UK. The Committee on Climate Change, an independent advisor to the UK Government, has stated that immediate action is required if we are to radically reduce carbon emissions produced by the provision of heat and meet our national and international climate-change targets. In addition to the pressing need to mitigate climate change, fuel poverty affects 11% of households in England; we need to find ways to provide affordable heating in the face of rising energy prices. The demand for cooling is also likely to rise substantially in coming years in response to a warmer climate and growing thermal comfort requirements, which will increase energy use and add to carbon emissions. Cities could provide the key to transforming our heat systems. Around 80% of people in the UK live in urban areas. There are many decentralised technology options available for moving from fossil fuel-based heat provision to affordable low-carbon systems, including household technologies such as heat pumps and biomass stoves, networks that provide heat from renewable and waste heat sources, and the replacement of natural gas with hydrogen in the gas grid. Previous modelling of urban heat systems has focussed on understanding potential uptake of just one of these technology types, and has often assumed that there would be one 'system architect'. In reality, an integrated mix of technologies will be needed, and the system will contain multiple decision-makers. My research will help incorporate this complexity into models that can be used to explore various heat-system scenarios. What mix of technologies would most benefit the multiple stakeholders in cities? Where should we invest in a city if we want to reduce fuel poverty? And how do the many decision-makers involved - including local authorities, gas and electricity networks operators, and central government - make decisions now to ensure that our heating and cooling needs are met for the next 30 years? Through this fellowship I will produce the frameworks, tools and models to help answer these questions. The findings will inform the long-term energy planning that the radical transformation of our urban heat systems will require. By applying the methods of complexity science to the heat system (by considering interactions between different sub-systems, e.g housing and energy), considering the spatial diversity of the evolution of demand for heating and cooling over the next 30 years (in response to drivers such as climate change and population growth), and exploring the integration of different technology options within a city (some technologies may operate centrally, others at the household level; they may vary by different fuel types e.g. electricity, gas or direct provision of heat), this work will empower effective, informed, forward-looking decision-making among city stakeholders. The methods and tools developed in this research will be applied to two UK case-study cities in order to co-produce visions of future urban energy systems (for example, where in a city different technologies could be deployed, and what benefits this might bring) and identify pathways towards those systems (i.e. who would need to act, and by when). The tools themselves will be co-created with stakeholders (such as local authorities, energy network operators, communities and policy-makers) so that they reflect these stakeholders' objectives (across economic, social and environmental metrics) and the reality of their decision-making processes. A subsequent evaluation process will help to identify ways in which these innovative participatory complex-systems modelling approaches could be applied to other energy-system challenges, multiplying the capacity of this research not only to contribute to the academic study of energy systems, but to shape the future of urban heat systems in the UK and beyond.

The UK is facing an energy crisis on three fronts: climate change, energy security, and affordability. This challenge requires a fundamental change in our society, to enable a deep energy demand reduction and wide use of low-carbon technologies, supported by policy, businesses and the public alike. Energy demand reduction is in fact fundamental so that we can improve energy security, reduce household energy bills and address climate change. Research has shown that reducing energy use could help meet half of the required emissions reductions we need by 2050 to become a Net Zero society. While this poses a challenge, it also provides an opportunity for the UK to become a global leader in energy demand reduction, and associated research. The Energy Demand Research Centre (EDRC) develops the next phase of energy demand research in the UK, building on previous research and working closely with academic and non-academic partners. Our work will inform and inspire energy demand reductions that support an affordable, comfortable and secure Net Zero society. Our research programme cuts across different sciences (e.g. engineering and social) and sectors (e.g. buildings, transport and industry). We study which energy demand solutions can be delivered in a flexible and equitable manner and at which locations, taking into consideration issues such as local housing stock and transport links, skills base and governance models. We aim to deliver impactful research on energy demand that produces actionable solutions for industry, policy makers, practitioners and charities.