Peak electricity demand is becoming an increasingly significant problem for UK electricity networks as it causes imbalances between demand and supply with negative impacts on system costs and the environment. The residential sector is responsible for about one third of overall electricity demand and up to 40% of peak demand. During peak demand, electricity prices in wholesale markets could fluctuate from less than £0.03/kWh to as much as £0.29/kWh. Time of Use tariffs offer significant potential benefits to the system by enabling responsive electricity demand and reducing peaks. For example, this could reduce the need for new generation and network capacity. However, the impact of more cost-reflective pricing will vary between consumers. In particular, those who consume electricity at more expensive peak periods, and who are unable to change their consumption patterns, could end up paying significantly more. Understanding the distributional effects of Time of Use tariffs becomes vital to ensuring affordability of energy bills, whilst making demand more flexible. Whilst there is research on fuel poverty in relation to aggregate level of consumption of electricity, little is known about the effects of dynamic tariffs on different socio-demographic groups. DEePRED will fill this gap. The overall aim of DEePRED is to analyse the distributional effects of Time of Use tariffs with a view to identify clusters of users which might significantly benefit or be disadvantaged through the provision of demand flexibility. The project will analyse 10-minute resolution time use activity data from the UK Office for National Statistics Time Use Survey with a view to derive information about times of the day in which different groups of people occupy households and carry out energy-related activities. The time use data will be combined with parameter data on temperatures, sunlight, number and typical consumption of household appliances and dwelling types to derive load profiles. This will take place thanks to the implementation of activity schemes. Load profiles data will then be used to calculate how consumer bills may change for different groups of consumers on stylised Time of Use tariffs.

Historically, human industrial and economic activities have been shaped greatly by the pattern of resource utilisation in favour at the time. For thousands of years pre-1800, material and energy resources, mostly renewable, were extracted and used locally. With the widening exploitation of energy-dense fossil fuels, post-1800 industry has been diverted to more centralised production primarily based on geographically concentrated resources, accompanied by large-scale distribution infrastructures. Whilst the scale economies of these large systems have served us well in certain respects, continued reliance on centralised resource extraction and production has contributed to the formation of a range of acute issues facing the global society today, such as insecurity of essential supplies, climate change, and social-economic imbalance and injustice. Driven by the desire to improve resource utilisation and broader sustainability in response to the above issues, a special chapter of re-distributed manufacturing is concerned with localised production with indigenous sustainable resources to support local economy and communities. Among products and services that can potentially benefit from localised production, food, energy and water represent the most essential commodities for every society. Furthermore, it has increasingly been recognised that there exist close ties between these commodities, manifested by (1) the significant energy and water footprints in food production and the mutual footprint between energy and water production, and (2) their intertwined connections with land and the broader ecosystems. The inseparable challenges from the three sectors require an integrative approach as opposed to tackling them in silos. Local nexuses, involving localised food manufacturing and decentralised energy and water supply that interact with the food system, are a special chapter of re-distributed manufacturing (RDM) with a focus on the sustainable local alignment of resources, production and consumption. To-date, a comprehensive technological, economic, and social/political understanding of local production/manufacture of food, energy and water, or local nexus, is still yet to be developed. By collaboration between engineering and social sciences, the Local Nexus Network will carry out feasibility projects and events to (i) establish the technical and socio-economic state-of-the-art of local productions of food, energy and water, (ii) generate initial insights for guiding researchers, businesses, policy makers and communities who are enthusiastic about exploring the potential of local nexuses, (iii) develop an evidence-based research agenda, (iv) form an inclusive research and stakeholder community, and (v) inform other related research on RDM. Two "master" case study locales, representing "new development" and "retrofitting" respectively, will be employed for empirical data collection and used as the background for developing new thinking.

Peak electricity demand is becoming an increasingly significant problem for UK networks as it causes imbalances between demand and supply with negative impacts on system costs and the environment. The residential sector is responsible for about one third of overall electricity demand (DECC, 2013). During peak demand, electricity prices in wholesale markets could fluctuate from less than 0.04 Euros/kWh to as much as 0.35 Euros/kWh (Torriti, 2015). In the future the peak problem is expected to worsen due to the integration of intermittent renewables in the supply mix as well as high penetration of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Understanding what constitutes peaks and identifying areas of effective load shifting intervention becomes vital to the balancing of demand and supply of electricity. Whilst there is information about the aggregate level of consumption of electricity, little is known about residential peak demand and what levels of flexibility might be available. REDPeak will fill this gap. The overall aim of REDPeak is to analyse the variation in sequences of activities taking place at times of peak electricity demand with a view to identify clusters of users which might provide flexibility for peak shifting intervention. The project will analyse 10-minute resolution time use activity data from the UK Office for National Statistics Time Use Survey with a view to derive information about occupancy and synchronisation of activities. Markov chains will be used to model load profiles in combination with appliance-specific parameter data. Since Markov chains have proven effective at generating electricity load profiles except for peak times, REDPeak will develop Hybrid Monte Carlo modelling to account for demand moving in larger steps during peak periods. Sequence analysis will be used to mine activities at periods of peak electricity demand. REDPeak will cluster respondents according to sequences of activities and analyse to what extent appliance-specific control variables explain activities at specific times of the day. Three datasets will be used for direct validation between metered data and time use data. Findings on sequence analysis will feed into algorithms for automated demand management or Demand Side Response.

This proposal responds to a call from the Research Councils for a national Centre on energy demand research, building on the work of the existing six End Use Energy Demand Centres, for which funding ends in April 2018. Energy demand reduction is a UK success story, with a 15% fall in final energy consumption since 2004. Major further reductions are possible and will be needed, as part of a transformation of the energy system to low carbon, to deliver the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UK carbon budgets. Moreover, a low carbon energy system will be increasingly reliant upon inflexible and variable electricity generation, and therefore demand will also need to become more flexible. In short, changes in energy demand reduction will need to go further and faster, and demand will need to become more flexible. These challenges have far-reaching implications for technology, business models, social practices and policy. Our vision is for energy demand research in the UK to rise to these challenges. The Centre's ambition is to lead whole systems work on energy demand in the UK, collaborating with a wider community both at home and internationally. We aim to deliver globally leading research on energy demand, to secure much greater impact for energy demand research and to champion the importance of energy demand for delivering environmental, social and economic goals. Our research programme is inter-disciplinary, recognising that technical and social change are inter-dependent and co-evolve. It is organised into six Themes. Three of these address specific issues in the major sectors of energy use, namely: buildings, transport and industry. The remaining three address more cross-cutting issues that drive changing patterns of demand, namely the potential for increased flexibility, the impact of digital technologies, and energy policy and governance. Each Theme has a research programme that has been developed with key stakeholders and will provide the capacity for the Centre to inform debate, deliver impact and share knowledge in its specific area of work. The Themes will also undertake collaborative work, with our first joint task being to assess the role of energy demand in delivering the objectives of the UK Government's Clean Growth Plan. The Centre will also include Challenges that respond to cross-thematic questions for UK energy demand. These will mostly be developed in consultation over the early years of the Centre, and therefore only one is included in the initial plan: on the decarbonisation of heat. The Centre will function as a national focus for inter-disciplinary research on energy demand. In doing this it will need to respond to a rapidly evolving energy landscape. It will therefore retain 25% of its funds to allocate during the lifetime of the Centre through a transparent governance process. These funds will support further challenges and a 'Flexible Fund', which will be used to support research on emerging research questions, in particular through support for early career researchers. We are working closely with key stakeholders in business and policy to design our research programme and we plan detailed knowledge exchange activities to ensure that the work of the UK energy demand research community has broader societal impact.

The UK energy system is changing rapidly. Greenhouse gas emissions fell by 43% between 1990 and 2017, and renewables now account for 30% of electricity generation. Despite this progress, achieving emissions reductions has been difficult outside the electricity sector, and progress could stall without more effective policy action. The Paris Agreement means that the UK may have to go further than current targets, to achieve a net zero energy system. Reducing emissions is not the only important energy policy goal. Further, progress need to be made whilst minimising the costs to consumers and taxpayers; maintaining high levels of energy security; and maximising economic, environmental and social benefits. There is a clear need for research to understand the nature of the technical, economic, political, environmental and societal dynamics affecting the energy system - including the local, national and international components of these dynamics. This proposal sets out UKERC's plans for a 4th phase of research and engagement (2019-2024) that addresses this challenge. It includes a programme of interdisciplinary research on sustainable future energy systems. This is driven by real-world energy challenges whilst exploring new questions, methods and agendas. It also explains how UKERC's central activities will be developed further, including new capabilities to support energy researchers and decision-makers. The UKERC phase 4 research programme will focus on new challenges and opportunities for implementing the energy transition, and will be concerned with the three main questions: - How will global, national and local developments influence the shape and pace of the UK's transition towards a low carbon energy system? - What are the potential economic, political, social and environmental costs and benefits of energy system change, and how can they be distributed equitably? - Which actors could take the lead in implementing the next stage of the UK's energy transition, and what are the implications for policy and governance? To address these questions, the research programme includes seven interrelated research themes: UK energy in a global context; Local and regional energy systems; Energy, environment, and landscape; Energy infrastructure transitions; Energy for mobility; Energy systems for heat; and Industrial decarbonisation. The proposal sets out details of research within these themes, plans for associated PhD studentships and details of the flexible research fund that will be used to commission additional research projects, scoping studies and to support integration. A first integration project on energy and the economy will be undertaken at the start of UKERC phase 4. The research themes are complemented by four national capabilities that form part of the research programme: an expanded Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) capability; a new Energy Modelling Hub; the UKERC Energy Data Centre; and a new Public Engagement Observatory. Research within TPA and the Observatory will align and integrate with the main research themes. These four capabilities will also enhance UKERC's ability to provide evidence, data and expertise for academic, policy, industry and other stakeholder communities. The UKERC headquarters (HQ) team will support the management and co-ordination of the research programme; and will also undertake a range of other functions to support the broader UK energy research community and its key stakeholders. These functions include promoting networking and engagement between stakeholders in academia, policy, industry and third sector (including through a networking fund), supporting career development and capacity building, and enhancing international collaboration (including through the UK's participation in the European Energy Research Alliance).