Overview: We request funds to make measurements of the elapsed time since major earthquakes on active faults in central Italy using 36-Cl cosmogenic dating, and calculate stress transfer from historical/palaeoseismic earthquakes. This will allow (1) knowledge transfer to at-risk communities in the region so they can prepare for future earthquakes if a fault with a long earthquake elapsed time has had stress transferred onto it by a neighboring earthquake(s), and (2) communication of this process to other regions with similar earthquake hazard. Technical Summary: Active faults experience earthquake rupture due to stress transfer from neighboring earthquakes only if the fault in question is close to its failure stress. We lack knowledge of which faults are close to their failure stress and thus cannot interpret calculations of stress transfer in terms of the probability of impending earthquakes. We propose, for an active normal fault system in central Italy, to measure the elapsed time since the last earthquake normalised to fault slip-rates using in situ 36-Cl cosmogenic isotope dating, because this is a proxy for how close a fault is to its failure stress. We will combine this with calculations of stress transfer from historical and palaeoseismic earthquakes in order to calculate which faults have the highest probability of rupture. Background: When an earthquake ruptures an active fault, stress is transferred onto neighboring active faults. This transfer of stress may cause a neighboring active fault to rupture in a subsequent earthquake. For example, the 2004 Boxing day earthquake on the subduction plate boundary near Sumatra caused severe loss of life on that day, but also triggered subsequent earthquakes in 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010, each of which caused major loss of life. Such triggered earthquakes also occur on active faults within plates, such as the three 9th September > Mw 6 earthquakes in 1349 A.D. in central Italy, which occurred on the same day, but on different active faults; this has increased concern for the possibility of a future mainshock to follow the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) whose ongoing aftershocks have transferred onto a neighboring fault (Fig. 1). A key point is that, despite the above examples, earthquakes do not always trigger subsequent earthquakes. Subsequent earthquakes only occur if the neighboring fault(s) are already close to failure due to long-term loading from motions in the crust or between plates. Identification of such faults could inform local populations and civil protection agencies in advance of a future earthquake allowing location-prioritised mitigation efforts. However, unfortunately, we cannot directly measure stress on a fault at 12-15 km depth where intra-plate mainshocks nucleate and so cannot identify such faults. However, we can measure a proxy for stress-through-time, that is elapsed time since the last earthquake, using cosmogenic isotopes (36-Cl). In the sub-surface, 36-Cl concentrations accumulate through time mainly due to hits on calcium atoms by cosmic particles. With 1-2 m slip in each earthquake on active normal faults, and with knowledge of 36-Cl production rates at depth, 36-Cl concentrations measured at 1-2 metres depth quantify elapsed time since the last earthquake. We can dig trenches to expose the fault plane to 1-2 metres depth and measure 36-Cl concentrations on the fault planes. If a neighboring earthquake has loaded/stressed a location with a high 36-Cl concentration, and hence a long elapsed time, we will be able to inform civil protection agencies responsible for planning mitigation; no such data are available at present. We can make such measurements, and have ongoing links with government civil protection project partners who make the seismic hazard maps for central Italy, and who are involved in communicating seismic hazard worldwide.

The migration of birds from temperate and arctic breeding grounds to lower latitudes for the non-breeding season is a major global wildlife event, comprising billions of birds and providing an important component of global ecosystems. Some of these movements are truly amazing - some 12 gram birds fly 3000km non-stop to reach their non-breeding grounds. The majority of inter-continental terrestrial migrations are undertaken by songbirds, which migrate across broad fronts, often stopping to refuel on their journey. Despite intensive study on the breeding grounds, and to a lesser extent the non-breeding grounds and stop-over sites, research to simulate the migratory journeys themselves, or to test theoretic models of migration for such species, is rare. A generic model of migration has never been applied to songbirds undertaking the Europe- trans-Saharan migration; this is a major objective of this proposal. In light of projections of climate and land-use changes on the breeding, non-breeding and stop-over grounds of these species, such models are urgently required. Migrants could be especially vulnerable to climate change given their reliance on the linkage between widely-separated areas, which are potentially undergoing very different changes. The main limitation to developing and testing models of songbird migration has been an inability to monitor individual movements so as to understand their routes and strategies. The recent development of geolocator trackers, which record time and location and can be used on the smaller species that comprise the majority of migrants, has provided data to test migration models for the first time. Here, we will collate tracking, and extensive ringing and observation data for trans-Saharan migrants, to better understand their migratory routes and decisions. Simultaneously, we will develop flight models for individual species, which consider species-specific physiology and form to determine their flight-range potential. We will use the outputs in spatially-explicit dynamic programming (DP) models, and will test their ability to replicate observed patterns of migration. This will build on earlier work modelling optimal migration using very simple systems. We have already developed pilot flight range models that replicate well the timing and routes of migration of tracked individuals of species with near-linear migrations. Building on these data, we will use DP models, with realistic landscape resources/costs, to evaluate optimal migratory routes and refuelling locations given temporally-constrained destination rewards (i.e., likely breeding success). We will consider landscapes with dynamic resource availability, based on factors such as species-specific habitat preferences and likely food availability (based on weather and NDVI), and will include factors such as wind direction, location (relative to time of year) and an individual's energy stores to determine whether they should stay or, if not, where they should move to. We will use these models to explore inter-annual variation in arrival dates at migratory end-points, to aid understanding of what drives phenological changes in migratory species, and to test theories of what determines migratory decisions. Modelling formalises our understanding of migration, making explicit our assumptions and any gaps in available data. Crucially, it can also inform our understanding of the migratory process and how that process will be influenced by future environmental changes. The end product will be a much better understanding of the drivers of the routes and strategies of long-distance migrants, and a modelling framework that can be applied to a wide suite of migratory passerines in different regions, or under scenarios of climate and land-use change, to simulate consequences for migratory journeys.

Earthquakes pose one of the greatest natural threats to vast populations. In the last century, earthquakes have caused 2.3 million deaths (1 million in the last 30 years alone) and US$820 billion of financial losses. Earthquakes are generated by movement along lines of geological weakness called "active faults" which, in some places, can be observed on the Earth's surface. Unlike other natural hazards, advances in scientific understanding have not yet led to a reduction in fatalities from earthquakes. Predicting the timing, location and magnitude of individual earthquakes is likely impossible, but estimating the spatial distribution of earthquake hazard is manageable, and of great importance to the global population and the insurance economy. However, there are difficulties in calculating the earthquake hazard because we are currently reliant on present-day measurements of the rates of movement of faults and historical records of past damaging earthquakes. We cannot simply observe earthquakes for longer, therefore we must develop 'geologically richer' numerical simulations to build synthetic earthquake records and seismic hazard models to improve our understanding of the fundamental processes that control earthquakes. This project will develop a new, geologically-rich, fully integrated physics-based approach to modelling all aspects of the earthquake cycle. The earthquake cycle is the cyclical nature of earthquakes occurring, with tectonic stress building up and then releasing in a series of earthquakes over time. The physical processes that control the earthquake cycle operate on different time-scales, from seconds during the earthquake to millennia between earthquakes recurring on the same fault. The shape and spacing of faults also affect how earthquakes are generated, but it is not always easy to see the true shape of faults at the Earth's surface. There are three stages of the earthquake cycle that are currently modelled separately. These are; 1. the dynamic process of fault slip occurring over seconds to minutes during the earthquake, 2. the resulting deformation and stress transfer onto surrounding faults and 3. the evolution and accumulation of tectonic stress between earthquakes. Each of these three stages can be modelled individually and are used to speculate on different aspects of the earthquake cycle. However, because they are presently not integrated, the effects of each one on the others are poorly understood. Several active and inactive systems of extensional faults will be studied. The seismically active central and southern Italian Apennines will be studied because there is a wealth of data available; the faults are well-exposed at the surface and there is a 700 years record of damaging earthquakes and therefore high seismic hazard. The inactive fault systems that will be studied are offshore Norway, Australia and New Zealand. These inactive systems are important to study because we can use seismic reflection (like echo-location of the ground under the sea bed) to image the faults, to see their 3D shape and study how that has evolved with time. The slip rate on these faults can be quantified by studying the age and offset across these faults. It's important to study a range of different systems to synthesise the different data sets available in these regions. In summary, earthquake hazard forecasting is currently lagging behind forecasting of other natural hazards. By combining three different physics-based modelling approaches and testing the resulting model on two data-rich natural fault systems, this project will generate a truly physical and geological model of a fault system - this has not been attempted before. These models will output synthetic earthquake catalogues that can be compared to historical records (hindcasting), used to speculate on the future locations of earthquakes (forecasting) and used to inform and understand uncertainty in seismic hazard mode

The receding Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is now the largest contributor to global sea-level rise. A major driving force behind this recession is the encroachment of warm ocean water through fjords to the faces of marine-terminating outlet glaciers (MTOGs) that drain the ice sheet. Satellite data confirm that these glaciers have thinned, accelerated and retreated over the past few decades, but with significant temporal and spatial variability. Despite this information, our ability to predict how, and at what rate, the ice sheet will respond to future warming is made difficult by a lack of direct observations from these remote and often ice-infested areas and by the limited time-series of existing datasets. Constraining Greenland's likely decay trajectory is necessary to evaluate policy options with regard to its contribution to sea level rise. However, the wider effects of this decay also encompass the marine environments bordering the landmass. Increasing the supply of freshwater to these areas (as meltwater and icebergs) alters circulation patterns and impacts North Atlantic weather systems, including those affecting the UK. It also brings nutrients to offshore areas that promote marine productivity, which in turn has the potential to draw down more atmospheric CO2 and bury organic carbon in fjord and shelf sediments. To date, these processes have not been quantified and we need to improve our understanding of this negative feedback to climate change before it can be incorporated into predictive models. One way to determine which ice-ocean-marine ecosystem scenarios are analogues for future warming scenarios is to extend the record of modern observations back over the last 11,700 years of the Holocene using proxies from marine sediment cores. A few records of 20th Century iceberg calving and warm water encroachment exist around Greenland but there are no comprehensive, coupled records of past glacier change, ocean warming and marine productivity for earlier periods. Here, we propose to generate these long-term records for the Holocene era for a key location in SE Greenland (Kangerlussuaq Fjord) calibrated by observations of the present-day system over three annual cycles. We will then use numerical modelling constrained by our new data to test how the Greenland Ice Sheet responded to climatic warming during the Holocene, particularly during the Holocene Thermal Maximum when summer temperatures were analogous to those predicted for 2100. We will acquire a full suite of oceanographic, biological and geological observations during a 6-week multidisciplinary cruise to SE Greenland on the UK's new polar research vessel, the RRS Sir David Attenborough, making full use of its state-of-the-art capabilities as a logistical platform. We will use cruise datasets to determine modern interactions between warm water inflows and glacial meltwater outflows, and to quantify marine productivity, sedimentation and nutrient cycling. At the same time, we will collect long and short marine-sediment cores and terrestrial rock samples to constrain past changes in glacier dynamics and derive coupled proxy records of ocean temperatures and carbon burial/storage. To do this, we will calibrate the sediment-core signals with our modern observations using an anchored mooring and repeat observations.

As flood hazard, and the frequency of extreme floods in particular, is projected to increase in the future the risks associated with the impact of wood in rivers is also likely set to increase. Thus, in order effectively manage wood in river systems there is a need to understand and predict how the presence of wood will produce ecological benefits and how these benefits trade-off against the risks associated with its presence. This is not currently possible and this project seeks to address this significant knowledge gap. In order to improve understanding of this benefit-risk relationship there is a need to overcome major deficiencies in knowledge, including: (i) a lack of any attempt to systematically quantify the driving variables in wood dynamics and despite the rapid development and evolution of high-resolution measuring technologies there are inconsistencies in the type and methods of data collected. This means that there is limited capacity to validate predictive models of risk; (ii) research has been undertaken in an ad hoc manner and so many of the empirical relationships of the cost-benefits of wood dynamics have been drawn from case studies. Since the empirical relationships are used to underpin management strategies it is unclear of the global applicability of these sites beyond specific environments in which the relationships were derived, and (iii) limited understanding of how predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of flood events will serve to increase the risks posed by wood in river systems. By bringing the diverse skill set of the project partners together for the first time means that this network is now in a position to address these deficiencies. This proposal draws on the experience and expertise of all project partners who work across different global catchments representative of different hydroclimates and operationalise different management strategies. By doing this the network will deliver a globally derived and globally applicable standardised approach to both quantifying the impact of, and predicating current and future risks posed by, wood in rivers. The project will outcome 6 deliverables, including: D1 - A fully searchable interactive global digital risk atlas; D2 - A new series of directly comparable, standardised metrics and measuring protocols for quantifying, modelling and managing wood dynamics in rivers; D3 - A systems dynamics model which can be used to predict how key management interventions and environmental change scenarios affect risk associated with wood in rivers; D4 - A series of journal papers (included already outline agreed Nature Reviews article) to disseminate research findings to the academic and practitioner community; D5 - A series of funding proposals to underpin future sustainability of the network; and D6 - A series of events to further expand the scope of the network to the academic and practitioner communities.