Decision-makers in the developing and developed world are notoriously poor at considering the risk that an investment or intervention could fail to achieve its objectives. This is also true for groundwater development projects in African drylands. Social and environmental sustainability of groundwater refers to a fair distribution of this natural asset between users and across generations. Aquifers are one component of groundwater and require particularly careful management, particularly fossil aquifers, which do not replenish naturally. The risk is that current use of an aquifer will draw down on the water needs of future generations. To achieve sustainability, there is a need to properly assess any new water abstraction infrastructure, such as a pipeline to supply a town. The accuracy of such assessments is weakened by the fact that the current practice inadequately addresses uncertainties surrounding the impacts of increased groundwater use, particularly the impact of groundwater development on the aquifer and the people that relying upon it. Uncertainties around the impacts of groundwater development are particularly high for aquifers in dryland areas since information on the current geo-hydrological parameters and how these will evolve under future change is typically scarce. Thus, the proposed research will first develop a conceptual framework on how to address uncertainties around ground water development in data scarce areas. Second, it will use this to model the uncertainties around investments that significantly increase groundwater use. Third, the project aims to assess the social impacts of these increased water abstractions. To this end, it will assemble information, including the visions and perspectives of various stakeholders and groundwater users to support dialogue on how to achieve sustainable water use for Kenya's largest aquifer, the fossil Merti aquifer in arid northeastern Kenya. This aquifer provides water to the world's largest refugee camp, population 630,000, and may already be over-utilized. Furthermore, it feeds the Juba River, which runs through southern Somalia, the discharge of which is decreasing. The project will focus on plans -- already far advanced -- to increase abstractions from the Merti aquifer to supply drinking water to the city of Wajir. The initiation of a dialogue is complicated by scarce and unreliable data and lack of synthetic insight into the consequences of current and future use. Thus the challenge is to develop the information, which acknowledges uncertainties around the outcomes of the planned groundwater development to support a sustainable management approach in a data-scarce environment. The models that will be developed will assess the level of uncertainty and value of information of the basic geo-hydrological parameters. This value of information approach will serve as guidance for selection of key parameters to focus on for a follow up proposal to the next UPGro round with a view to supporting initiatives to manage the aquifer to achieve greater social sustainability including intergenerational equity.

Indigenous Peoples (IPs) are believed to be at particularly high risk from COVID, exacerbated by climate risks and socio-economic stresses. There is emerging evidence that national responses to the pandemic are compounding the vulnerability of IPs, exacerbated by little--if any--understanding on the unique pathways through which COVID will affect IPs. This project will address this knowledge and policy gap by documenting, monitoring, and examining how COVID is interacting with multiple stresses to affect the food systems of IPs globally, co-generating knowledge and capacity to strengthen resilience. Our focus on food reflects the fact that many of the risks posed by COVID stem from interactions with food systems, which for IPs are composed of a mix of traditional and modern elements. The work will be undertaken in collaboration with 24 distinct Indigenous peoples in 14 countries, and is structured around objectives which will: document the emergence of COVID and examine its impacts on food systems to-date; monitor and examine the real-time lived experiences, responses, and observations on COVIDs impact on food systems; compile and assess how COVID is being officially communicated and responded to; identify, examine, and promote interventions to strengthen resilience; and examine scalable insights for vulnerable populations across LMICs. Qualitative data collection is underpinned by a network of 'COVID Observers' within communities, in decision making roles, and researchers already located in the study regions, who will document their experiences and observations in reflective diaries over a 12 month period, capturing different stages of the pandemic and how multiple factors interact over time to create vulnerability and resilience. The global scope of the work builds upon ongoing and completed projects by team members in the study regions, leveraging considerable capacity and networks developed in work funded by DFID, UKRI, Wellcome Trust, FAO, and IDRC, among others.