TRANSJIHAD aims at advancing our understanding of one of the greatest contemporary challenges on the international agenda for peace and security, namely the ability of transnational jihadist movements to tap into local conflicts, hence escalating violence. TRANSJIHAD specifically investigates the questions of how jihadist conflicts become transnational and under what circumstances they can be contained. The project also aims at developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework, which combines micro- and macro level approaches to jihadism, drawing from both Religious Studies, Security Studies and Peace & Conflict Studies. Methodologically, TRANSJIHAD dissolves the scientific dichotomy between inside- and outside-oriented approaches to the study of transnational jihadist conflicts, widening prevailing scientific understandings of transnationalization processes. The project uniquely combines i) a quantitative examination of transnationalization processes drawing from the Religion and Armed Conflicts (RELAC) dataset based at Uppsala University, ii) comparative case studies of the mechanisms of escalation and de-escalation of jihadist conflicts across Asia, the Middle East, the Arab Peninsula and Africa focusing on the movements of Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, the Taleban, and Boko Haram, iii) securitization analyses of the macro-level conflict structures that transnational jihadist movements tap into, and finally iv) sociotheological worldview analyses of potential changes in jihadist conflict imagery during transnationalization processes. With its focus on macro-level conflict structures, TRANSJIHAD also contributes to developing a new framework for thinking about containment, providing an alternative to both the micro-level countering discourses embraced by much of the radicalization research, and the containment thinking that stems from the treatment of jihadist conflicts as civil wars in the peace and conflict literature.

The ‘Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: mapping geopolitical shifts, regional order and domestic transformations’ -the MENARA Project- will study the geopolitical order in the making in the South and East Mediterranean Countries and the Middle East amid all deep-reaching social and political changes unfolding since 2010. The project aims at describing the main features of the regional geopolitical order, its origins, and evolution; identifying and mapping the decisive domestic, regional and global actors, dynamics and trends; building future scenarios for 2025 and 2040; and informing EU policies and strategies. It will examine whether, where and when conflict and/or cohesion dynamics prevail, the level and depth of regional fragmentation and the effects of regional and domestic processes on global dynamics and vice versa. This will be achieved by analysing ideational and material factors (national, sub and supra-national identities; religion and politics; global identities; demography; energy; economy; military; environment) and by conducting in-depth research on specific case studies on ongoing dynamics at three different levels (domestic, regional and global). All this research will be based on quantitative and qualitative methods -including fact finding missions on the ground, interviews, focus groups, Delphi surveys - and innovative foresight techniques. Research will be accompanied by pioneering dissemination methods willing to increase the project’s impact not only over the specific academic community and policy-making circles but also over broader general public. This will include the translation of research results into accessible deliverables such as audio-visuals, futures notes series, infographics and interactive maps, and a Massive Open Online Course.

The EU and Turkey face mounting challenges both in relation to one another and internationally. The EU is confronted with an economic crisis which is likely to make differentiation a growing phenomenon. Turkey faces polarisation between different political forces, the state and civil society. The neighbourhood is unravelling to the east and south and a power shift is under way at global level. This questions the regional roles of Turkey and the EU. Accordingly, FEUTURE – a consortium of 13 experienced universities and think tanks from the EU, Turkey and the neighbourhood – aims to: (1) map the dynamics of EU-Turkey relations as to underlying narratives and thematic drivers; (2) substantiate most likely future scenario(s) and assess its implications; (3) draw policy recommendations. FEUTURE provides excellence and pursues an ambitious, inspiring and innovative programme in a three-phased structure of elaboration, exploration and extrapolation. It applies an inter-temporal, interdisciplinary and international approach by analysing drivers within six thematic dimensions (politics, security, economics, energy, migration, identity) and across four levels of analysis (EU, Turkey, neighbourhood, global). Phases 1 and 2 culminate in an extrapolation phase in which FEUTURE integrates new knowledge and tests the implications of 3 ideal-type future scenarios for EU-Turkey relations: conflict, cooperation and convergence. We engage in a trans-disciplinary exchange within an elite survey and with the knowledge-user community from the four levels of analysis exploiting the full range of virtual and social media as well as traditional means. FEUTURE’s work plan guarantees coherence of its research approach by streamlining work in one conceptual, one synthesis, two organisational and six thematic work packages. Joint WP meetings and three FEUTURE conferences assure intensive horizontal exchange. FEUTURE will achieve academic, practical and structural impact beyond the project.