In the UK, as in virtually every developed country, it is widely accepted that we need more people studying and working at all levels in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM). STEM industries are vital elements of the global economy with jobs in science, technology and engineering predicted to grow at double the rate relative to other careers. Yet there is a widespread consensus that there is a substantial - and growing - STEM skills gap, with insufficient numbers of suitably STEM-qualified workers to meet demand. It has also been argued that STEM skills are beneficial for a wide range of careers and can promote social mobility. Relatedly, there are serious concerns about the lack of STEM-qualified graduates entering teaching and the potential impact of this shortfall not just on schools currently, but also for the future STEM skills gap. Alongside the need to increase STEM participation, important arguments have been made for the imperative to widen participation in STEM and ensure high levels of scientific, mathematical, technical and digital literacy across the population. Specifically, there is a need to broaden the gender, ethnic and social class profile of those who study STEM post-16, particularly in the physical sciences and engineering, where women, some minority ethnic and working-class communities are starkly under-represented. Yet initiatives aimed at increasing and/or widening the profile of STEM graduates appear to have had little lasting impact on the higher education participation rates. Understanding the factors shaping STEM participation is, therefore, a key priority area for governments and a wide range of stakeholders both nationally and internationally. The proposed three year study seeks to understand the processes through which young people develop their science and career choices and trajectories from age 20-23. Specifically, the proposed study will extend the unique dataset developed by the first and second longitudinal ASPIRES and ASPIRES2 studies, which tracked the development of young people's science and career aspirations from age 10-19 (surveying over 39,000 young people at five time points between the ages of 10 and 18 and longitudinal, repeat interviews with 61 young people and their parents over the same age period). ASPIRES3 will continue tracking this cohort via a representative national survey with c.7-10,000 young people at age 20/21, sampled from those who have previously conducted ASPIRES/ASPIRES2 surveys and boosted via online (social media) recruitment, as a media that is particularly successful for recruiting this age group. The project will also conduct interviews with c.60 students who have been longitudinally tracked from age 10 and their c.60 parents. The project will also undertake secondary analysis of previous ASPIRES & ASPIRES2 survey data from over 16,000 students, matched to large national data bases to examine whether/which attitudinal and social factors at age 10/11 relate to later attainment and life outcomes at age 20/21. The knowledge generated by the research will inform inter/national STEM education policy and practice, particularly how to better increase and widen post-compulsory participation in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics. The project will become the only longitudinal project to track young people's aspirations (in and out of science) from primary school, through compulsory, post-compulsory and higher education into work. In line with our commitment to achieving impactful research, the study will involve three impact collaborations with the Royal Society of Chemistry, Engineering UK and the Institute of Physics. Findings and recommendations will be disseminated via a wide range of academic journal articles and bespoke summaries, publications, events and social media for stakeholders.

In recent years the concept of driverless or autonomous road vehicles (AVs) has gained a great deal of technical respectability and most major manufacturers intend to bring a partially or fully autonomous vehicle to market within the next few years. Much progress has been made on a range of technologies relevant to this concept, including digital mapping, position recognition by lidar and radar systems and advanced vehicle to vehicle communications. There are a number of advantages for such vehicles over normal driver controlled vehicles in terms of safety, reliability, access for the disabled and increasing the efficiency of road use. The latter comes about primarily because such vehicles are able to drive closely together in platoon formation. This project is concerned with a technical area associated with platoon running. where to date only a restricted amount of experimental work has been carried out - that of the aerodynamics of vehicles travelling in platoons, and the nature of the flow field in and around platoons is not well understood. In particular the following aspects will be investigated. a) The overall stability of vehicles travelling in the wake of other vehicles, particularly if there are organised coherent wake flow structures such as trailing vortices. These stability effects may be made more severe by the presence of slight cross winds that result in asymmetric and variable wakes, which can be expected to occur for the majority of the time. b) Problems associated with exhaust pollutants can also be envisaged, as it is possible that pollutants may build up along the length of the platoon and not be released into the open atmosphere, and may, if the conditions are suitable, be ingested by vehicle power plant and ventilation systems. c) Aerodynamic noise is an important design consideration for road vehicles, both in terms of passenger and driver comfort, and in terms of the overall effect of traffic on the surrounding environment. It is not clear how the use of platoon running of AVs will affect the internal and external propagation of aerodynamic vehicle noise. In addition work is proposed to investigate a related problem - the aerodynamic aspects of trains running very closely together, an issue which has emerged from recent studies of high speed coupling and uncoupling operations. This work will be carried out through physical and computational modelling. The physical modelling work will utilise the University of Birmingham moving model TRAIN Rig, which allows individual and platoons of vehicles to be propelled along a 150m long test track at speeds of up to 80m/s. The work will involve detailed measurements of pressure over the vehicles (such that aerodynamic forces can be calculated), and measurements of aerodynamic noise propagation from platoons and pollutant dispersion from platoons. The computational work will be carried out using conventional RANS techniques for a wide range of vehicle and platoon configurations, but also a smaller number of calculations using more sophisticated DES and LED methods to provide high quality unsteady flow information. Taken together, the physical modelling results and the CFD will enable a detailed understanding to be achieved of the aerodynamic behaviour of ground vehicles running closely together, which will be of considerable interest and importance to a variety of stakeholders.

National infrastructure (NI) systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in the UK and in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. The 2009 Council for Science and Technology (CST) report on NI in the UK identified significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations and a number of NI components nearing the end of their useful life. It also highlighted serious fragmentation in the arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK. There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions from infrastructure, to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change. If this process of transforming NI is to take place efficiently, whilst also minimising the associated risks, it will need to be underpinned by a long-term, cross-sectoral approach to understanding NI performance under a range of possible futures. The 'systems of systems' analysis that must form the basis for such a strategic approach does not yet exist - this inter-disciplinary research programme will provide it.The aim of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium is to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of NI. The research will deal with energy, transport, water, waste and ICT systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies. It will provide a virtual environment in which we will test strategies for long term investment in NI and understand how alternative strategies perform with respect to policy constraints such as reliability and security of supply, cost, carbon emissions, and adaptability to demographic and climate change.The research programme is structured around four major challenges:1. How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? We will develop methods for modelling capacity, demand and interdependence in NI systems in a compatible way under a wide range of technological, socio-economic and climate futures. We will thereby provide the tools needed to identify robust strategies for sustainably balancing capacity and demand.2. What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt NI to make it more resilient?We will analyse the risks of interdependent infrastructure failure by establishing network models of NI and analysing the consequences of failure for people and the economy. Information on key vulnerabilities and risks will be used to identify ways of adapting infrastructure systems to reduce risks in future.3. How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? Starting with idealised simulations and working up to the national scale, we will develop new models of how infrastructure, society and the economy evolve in the long term. We will use the simulation models to demonstrate alternative long term futures for infrastructure provision and how they might be reached.4. What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? Working with a remarkable group of project partners in government and industry, we will use our new methods to develop and test alternative strategies for Britain's NI, building an evidence-based case for a transition to sustainability. We will analyse the governance arrangements necessary to ensure that this transition is realisable in practice.A Programme Grant provides the opportunity to work flexibly with key partners in government and industry to address research challenges of national importance in a sustained way over five years. Our ambition is that through development of a new generation of tools, in concert with our government and industry partners, we will enable a revolution in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK, whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.

National infrastructure (NI) systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in the UK and in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. The 2009 Council for Science and Technology (CST) report on NI in the UK identified significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations and a number of NI components nearing the end of their useful life. It also highlighted serious fragmentation in the arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK. There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions from infrastructure, to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change. If this process of transforming NI is to take place efficiently, whilst also minimising the associated risks, it will need to be underpinned by a long-term, cross-sectoral approach to understanding NI performance under a range of possible futures. The 'systems of systems' analysis that must form the basis for such a strategic approach does not yet exist - this inter-disciplinary research programme will provide it.The aim of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium is to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of NI. The research will deal with energy, transport, water, waste and ICT systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies. It will provide a virtual environment in which we will test strategies for long term investment in NI and understand how alternative strategies perform with respect to policy constraints such as reliability and security of supply, cost, carbon emissions, and adaptability to demographic and climate change.The research programme is structured around four major challenges:1. How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? We will develop methods for modelling capacity, demand and interdependence in NI systems in a compatible way under a wide range of technological, socio-economic and climate futures. We will thereby provide the tools needed to identify robust strategies for sustainably balancing capacity and demand.2. What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt NI to make it more resilient?We will analyse the risks of interdependent infrastructure failure by establishing network models of NI and analysing the consequences of failure for people and the economy. Information on key vulnerabilities and risks will be used to identify ways of adapting infrastructure systems to reduce risks in future.3. How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? Starting with idealised simulations and working up to the national scale, we will develop new models of how infrastructure, society and the economy evolve in the long term. We will use the simulation models to demonstrate alternative long term futures for infrastructure provision and how they might be reached.4. What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? Working with a remarkable group of project partners in government and industry, we will use our new methods to develop and test alternative strategies for Britain's NI, building an evidence-based case for a transition to sustainability. We will analyse the governance arrangements necessary to ensure that this transition is realisable in practice.A Programme Grant provides the opportunity to work flexibly with key partners in government and industry to address research challenges of national importance in a sustained way over five years. Our ambition is that through development of a new generation of tools, in concert with our government and industry partners, we will enable a revolution in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK, whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.

National infrastructure provides essential services to a modern economy: energy, transport, digital communications, water supply, flood protection, and waste water / solid waste collection, treatment and disposal. The OECD estimates that globally US$53 trillion of infrastructure investment will be needed by 2030. The UK's National Infrastructure Plan set out over £460 billion of investment in the next decade, but is not yet known what effect that investment will have on the quality and reliability of national infrastructure services, the size of the economy, the resilience of society or its impacts upon the environment. Such a gap in knowledge exists because of the sheer complexity of infrastructure networks and their interactions with people and the environment. That means that there is too much guesswork, and too many untested assumptions in the planning, appraisal and design of infrastructure, from European energy networks to local drainage systems. Our vision is for infrastructure decisions to be guided by systems analysis. When this vision is realised, decision makers will have access to, and visualisation of, information that tells them how all infrastructure systems are performing. They will have models that help to pinpoint vulnerabilities and quantify the risks of failure. They will be able to perform 'what-if' analysis of proposed investments and explore the effects of future uncertainties, such as population growth, new technologies and climate change. The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) is a consortium of seven UK universities, led by the University of Oxford, which has developed unique capability in infrastructure systems analysis, modelling and decision making. Thanks to an EPSRC Programme Grant (2011-2015) the ITRC has developed and demonstrated the world's first family of national infrastructure system models (NISMOD) for analysis and long-term planning of interdependent infrastructure systems. The research is already being used by utility companies, engineering consultants, the Institution of Civil Engineers and many parts of the UK government, to analyse risks and inform billions of pounds worth of better infrastructure decisions. Infrastructure UK is now using NISMOD to analyse the National Infrastructure Plan. The aim of MISTRAL is to develop and demonstrate a highly integrated analytics capability to inform strategic infrastructure decision making across scales, from local to global. MISTRAL will thereby radically extend infrastructure systems analysis capability: - Downscale: from ITRC's pioneering representation of national networks to the UK's 25.7 million households and 5.2 million businesses, representing the infrastructure services they demand and the multi-scale networks through which these services are delivered. - Upscale: from the national perspective to incorporate global interconnections via telecommunications, transport and energy networks. - Across-scale: to other national settings outside the UK, where infrastructure needs are greatest and where systems analysis represents a huge business opportunity for UK engineering firms. These research challenges urgently need to be tackled because infrastructure systems are interconnected across scales and prolific technological innovation is now occurring that will exploit, or may threaten, that interconnectedness. MISTRAL will push the frontiers of system research in order to quantify these opportunities and risks, providing the evidence needed to plan, invest in and design modern, sustainable and resilient infrastructure services. Five years ago, proposing theory, methodology and network models that stretched from the household to the globe, and from the UK to different national contexts would not have been credible. Now the opportunity for multi-scale modelling is coming into sight, and ITRC, perhaps uniquely, has the capacity and ambition to take on that challenge in the MISTRAL programme.