The country of Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia is exposed to the hazards of earthquakes. The tectonic collision of the Earth's plates is creating huge mountains in this region. These mountains are created from earthquakes on large faults along the northern Tien Shan mountain range. Kyrgyzstan's' capital, Bishkek, lies on top of one of these major fault lines and is home to a million people. In the past, major cities that exist along the northern edge of this mountain range, such as Almaty to the east, have been destroyed in large earthquakes at the end of the 19th Century. This occurred when they were relatively small towns. The impact today from similar sized earthquakes would have a much more devastating effect if it were to strike the major city of Bishkek. The rapid expansion of cities in poorer countries has meant that a large number of buildings are not strong enough to be resilient to earthquakes. We want to help the Government ministries in Bishkek, such as the Ministry for Construction and also for Emergency Situations, to be able to better assess the potential impact for earthquakes to strike the city in future. We will do this by providing them with estimates of how many people may die in future earthquakes, how many buildings will be damaged or collapse, and how much such an earthquake will cost financially. We will also provide maps of where we think the city will be most affected by different types of earthquakes, as small nearby earthquakes can have as big an impact as distant large ones. This will enable the Kyrgyz government ministries to target where in the city key buildings, such as schools and hospitals, should be reinforced, as well as to better plan where new housing estates should be built, and also to enforce the seismic building codes to make sure the buildings are built better. In order to provide this latest information, we will be working with the Institute of Seismology in Bishkek, whose responsibility it is to provide these kinds of estimates of seismic risk. We are therefore working directly with the organisation that has the mandate to provide information to the government and by doing so we will ensure that our work will also have an impact. We are also going to train the institute staff to be able to update these estimates of losses so that they have the capacity to continue this work once we are no longer working on this project. It is important to be able to keep updating the estimates of losses and maps of seismic risk. Cities are constantly enlarging. If these cities lie in earthquake prone areas, such as the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, this growth increases their exposure to seismic hazards, increasing the risk that people face. Often some of the best views over a city come from higher ground, but this high ground is created by faults that build mountains. The city of Bishkek is expanding southwards as the urban population grows, and homes are now being built right on top of these fault lines. Being very near to a fault increases the amount of shaking if an earthquake happens, and therefore increases the chances of the building collapsing, injuring or killing the occupants. As well as the increased exposure to earthquake hazards, we are also discovering more active faults in the region through mapping out the fault lines and identifying past earthquake ruptures. It is important to incorporate this new information into the estimates of seismic hazard, as some very large earthquakes are known to have struck the region in the past. Therefore we will include this recent scientific information into our estimates of seismic hazard. We are working with other partners, such as the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, which was created to serve the public good through collaboration, openness and transparency by providing credible assessments of seismic hazard and risk. Their open software "OpenQuake" enables us to do the calculations of seismic risk.

A major explosive volcanic eruption in Chile has occurred at volcan Calbuco. This volcano has been quiet for over 40 years, and showed no sign that it was about to erupt until just a few hours beforehand. This eruption created a spectacular plume, which sent ash and gases high into the atmosphere, disrupting air transport and causing misery on the ground. In the three days after the eruption, volcanic ash fell across a wide area of central South America, across areas that include ancient native forests; cities, towns and villages; and farms, both on land and at sea. We plan to carry out field work across areas of Chile and Argentina where ash fell, working with local scientists to measure how much ash fell out during the eruption; and to work out what the effects of the eruption are both in the weeks after the eruption, and in the longer term. Although this is a major eruption, much of the deposits will soon become buried within the soil; blown away by winds, or washed away by rain, so we will need to work quickly to find the ash where it fell. Since ash fell out across an area where many millions of people live, we should be able to work out how much the deposits have changed in the days and weeks since eruption, by locating photographs posted across social media at the time. One of the things that we hope to learn from this eruption is to work out how to help people cope better when ash falls out across their cities and farms, and to use this information to help plan for future events.

This project aims to improve the ability of ODA countries to forecast and mitigate volcanic activity, by using satellite data to improve volcano monitoring. According to the UN Global Assessment of Risk, over 90% of the total global volcanic threat is in developing countries, but 25% to 45% of historically active volcanoes were found to have no ground-based monitoring. Space-based methods offer a means to bridge the monitoring gap. Our survey of ODA volcano observatories identified two main activities that would improve uptake: 1) accessible automatic processing and 2) training in interpretation. This proposal brings together NERC-funded research on the application of Earth Observation data to volcanic processes with EPSRC-funded research in image analysis to develop automated processing and analysis systems. Our project partners, with whom we have long-standing relationships, represent an LDC (Ethiopia) and an UMIC (Ecuador) and will work with us to develop an accessible web platform to disseminate appropriate products. The proposal consists of three objectives: 1) to develop a suitable web platform to disseminate automatically processed satellite imagery; 2) to build capacity in ODA countries to access and interpret satellite data and 3) implement and refine algorithms to flag volcanic unrest and develop an alert system. The products will be developed with our project partners and launched globally at the Cities on Volcanoes conference 2020.

The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grimsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Since 2012, volcanic eruptions are listed in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies, recognising the high potential for societal disruption and economic loss. Volcano observatories and regulatory bodies, including the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs), use a variety of tools and data to mitigate the impacts of eruptions, and ensure aviation safety. Some of the most important tools are atmospheric models that simulate the atmospheric transport and removal of volcanic plume constituents and form the backbone of the regulatory response. The accuracy of these model predictions relies on: i) accurate input data, mainly derived from ground-based measurements and satellites; ii) the accuracy of the model representation of volcanic plume transport and plume processes. The overarching aims of V-PLUS are to transform our understanding of volcanic plumes and deliver methods and tools that enhance monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the UK and beyond. Our project partners and subcontractor include the Icelandic Met Office, the UK Met Office and Etna volcano observatory, which ensures that our new research breakthroughs will be used operationally by VAACs and volcano observatories. This will enhance our capabilities to mitigate the economic and societal hazards posed by volcanic eruptions. To achieve our aims, V-PLUS will exploit data from a recently launched satellite sensor called TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The exceptional spectral and spatial resolution of TROPOMI, 12 times better than the previous generation of instruments, is for the first time comparable to ground-based measurements, and will be a game-changer in volcanology, providing an unprecedented opportunity to characterise and track volcanic plumes. V-PLUS will combine this new data with ground-based and other satellite data, as well as atmospheric modelling to study volcanic plumes with unprecedented fidelity. To improve our ability to measure volcanic ash from satellite imagery we will conduct experiments on volcanoes, directly sampling volcanic ash during volcanic explosions using unmanned aerial vehicles, and test numerical models of volcanic activity. Aside from volcanic ash hazards, toxic volcanic sulphur species can degrade air quality, negatively affect human health, and potentially increase the cost of ownership of aircraft engines due to an increase in maintenance cycles. However, there is at present extremely limited knowledge of exposure thresholds and durations at which negative human health effects occur and the functioning of aircraft engines is compromised. While none of the VAACs are currently required to forecast the dispersion of volcanic sulphur, there is increasing recognition of the potential hazards from volcanic gases and their chemical conversion products. Thus, the requirement for VAACs could change in future. The chemical evolution of gases and aerosol particles controls the health and climatic impact of eruptions, and we will study this chemical evolution through experiments in accessible volcanic gas plumes. In summary, the new atmospheric models and tools created by the V-PLUS will be rigorously tested using case study eruptions and translated into tools for direct use by VAACs and volcano observatories. Therefore, the V-PLUS project will have societal and economic benefits primarily through creating enhanced national and international capability to predict the dispersion of volcanic ash and gas plumes including their impacts on air quality, human health, climate and aviation.