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Impact of the European Russia drought in 2010 on the Caspian Sea level
Impact of the European Russia drought in 2010 on the Caspian Sea level
The hydrological budgets of the Volga basin (VB) and the Caspian Sea (CS) have been analysed. The components of the water balance for the CS were calculated for the period 1993 to 2010 with emphasis on summer 2010 when a severe drought developed over European Russia. A drop in precipitation over the VB in July 2010 occurs simultaneously with a decrease in evaporation for the same area, an increase of evaporation over the CS itself and a drop of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). The drop in the precipitation over the VB cannot lead to an instantaneous drop of the CSL because the precipitated water needs some months to reach the CS. The delay is estimated here to be 1 to 3 months for excessive precipitation in summer, longer for deficient precipitation and for winter cases. However, the evaporation over the CS itself is considered to be responsible for a simultaneous drop of the CSL from July to September 2010. The impact on the CSL from the precipitation deficit over the VB occurs in the months following the drought. The water deficit from July to September 2010 calculated from the anomalous precipitation minus evaporation over the VB would decrease the CSL by 22 cm, of which only 2 cm had been observed until the end of September (observed Volga River discharge anomaly). So the remaining drop of 20 cm can be expected in the months to follow if no other anomalies happen. In previous studies the precipitation over the VB has been identified as the main cause for CSL changes, but here from a 10 cm drop from beginning of July to end of September, 6 cm can be directly assigned to the enhanced evaporation over the CS itself and 2 cm due to reduced precipitation over the CS. Further periods with strong changes of the CSL are also investigated, which provide some estimates concerning the accuracy of the analysis data. The investigation was possible due to the new ECMWF interim reanalysis data which are used to provide data also for sensitive quantities like surface evaporation and precipitation. The comparison with independent data and the consistency between such data for calculating the water budget over the CS gives a high confidence in the quality of the data used. This investigation provides some scope for making forecasts of the CSL few months ahead to allow for mitigating societal impacts.
- Brunel University London United Kingdom
- Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russian Federation Russian Federation
- Max Planck Institute for Heart and Lung Research Germany
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany
- Brunel University United Kingdom
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Arpe, K. and Leroy, S. A. G.: The Caspian Sea Level forced by the atmospheric circulation as observed and modelled, Quatern. Int., 173-174, 144-152, 2007. [OpenAIRE]
Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Golitsyn, G. S., Mokhov, I. I., Semenov, V. A., and Sporyshev, P. V.: Connection between Caspian Sea level variability and ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2693-2696, 2000. [OpenAIRE]
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and Garc´ıa-Herrera, R.: The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe, Science, 332, 220-224, 2011.
Cazenave, A., Bonnefond, K., Dominh, K., and Schaeffer, P.: Caspian Sea Level from Topex-Poseidon altimetry: Level now falling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 881-884, 1997.
CPC: available at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml, last access: 20 May 2011.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Ho´lm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Ka˚llberg, P., Ko¨hler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., The´paut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553- 597, doi:10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Du¨menil Gates, L., Hagemann, S., and Golz, C.: Observed historical discharge data from major rivers for climate model validation, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Report no. 307, 93 pp., 2000.
ECMWF: available at: http://data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/interim daily/, last access: 20 May 2011.
FAWR: Press release of the federal agency of water resources of the Russian Federation, available at: http://gfu-volga.ru, issued 15 November 2010, last access: 27 January 2011 (in Russian).
Golitsyn, G. S.: The Caspian Sea level as a problem of diagnosis and prognosis of the regional climate change, Izv. Russ. Acad. Sci. Atmos. Oceanic Phys., Engl. Trans., 31, 366-372, 1995.
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).0 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).0 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
Popularity provided by BIP!- Brunel University London United Kingdom
- Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russian Federation Russian Federation
- Max Planck Institute for Heart and Lung Research Germany
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany
- Brunel University United Kingdom
- Max Planck Society Germany
The hydrological budgets of the Volga basin (VB) and the Caspian Sea (CS) have been analysed. The components of the water balance for the CS were calculated for the period 1993 to 2010 with emphasis on summer 2010 when a severe drought developed over European Russia. A drop in precipitation over the VB in July 2010 occurs simultaneously with a decrease in evaporation for the same area, an increase of evaporation over the CS itself and a drop of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). The drop in the precipitation over the VB cannot lead to an instantaneous drop of the CSL because the precipitated water needs some months to reach the CS. The delay is estimated here to be 1 to 3 months for excessive precipitation in summer, longer for deficient precipitation and for winter cases. However, the evaporation over the CS itself is considered to be responsible for a simultaneous drop of the CSL from July to September 2010. The impact on the CSL from the precipitation deficit over the VB occurs in the months following the drought. The water deficit from July to September 2010 calculated from the anomalous precipitation minus evaporation over the VB would decrease the CSL by 22 cm, of which only 2 cm had been observed until the end of September (observed Volga River discharge anomaly). So the remaining drop of 20 cm can be expected in the months to follow if no other anomalies happen. In previous studies the precipitation over the VB has been identified as the main cause for CSL changes, but here from a 10 cm drop from beginning of July to end of September, 6 cm can be directly assigned to the enhanced evaporation over the CS itself and 2 cm due to reduced precipitation over the CS. Further periods with strong changes of the CSL are also investigated, which provide some estimates concerning the accuracy of the analysis data. The investigation was possible due to the new ECMWF interim reanalysis data which are used to provide data also for sensitive quantities like surface evaporation and precipitation. The comparison with independent data and the consistency between such data for calculating the water budget over the CS gives a high confidence in the quality of the data used. This investigation provides some scope for making forecasts of the CSL few months ahead to allow for mitigating societal impacts.