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The effect of climate change and oceanic carbon uptake on marine biogeochemistry remains highly uncertain. In particular, we have limited understanding of how the temporal variability of ocean chemistry will change over the 21st century while impacts on biological communities are even more uncertain (Bopp et al., 2013). This project (CONVINCE) aims to significantly reduce uncertainties associated with the interactions between climate, the oceans and marine ecosystems using a combination of novel experimental and model techniques. Adopting the recent concept of Emergent Constraints, CONVINCE will explore Earth System Model (ESM) ensembles for innovative ways to constrain projections of ocean-climate interactions. Using geochemical measurements, the project will assess the natural sensitivity of European coastal ecosystems to present ocean chemistry variability. Changes in the community calcification rates of these ecosystems since the pre-industrial will be estimated using alkalinity manipulation techniques (Albright et al., 2016). The project will deliver: (i) an enhanced understanding of how the temporal variability of ocean chemistry responds to climate change; (ii) Emergent Constraints on interactions between climate and the oceans based on satellite and shipboard observations and (iii) an in situ assessment of the impact of ocean acidification since the pre-industrial on European coastal ecosystems. CONVINCE will benefit from the expertise and experience of the PI, which includes training as an Earth System scientist, the development of the first Emergent Constraint on climate projections of the marine realm (Kwiatkowski et al., 2017) and involvement in pioneering field experiments that aim to understand the historical legacy of ocean acidification (Albright et al., 2016) and the importance of temporal ocean acidification variability for marine communities (Kwiatkowski et al., 2016a).
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