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This project explores the future multi-century coupled evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB, the difference between snow accumulation and surface ablation) and ice flow with the global and regional climate. To date, there are very few coupled studies with Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and GrIS flow models. These studies have used highly parameterized SMB calculations, regardless of SMB being a major component of the GrIS mass budget. We will use an advanced Earth System Model that bi-directionally couples GrIS surface melt and runoff with an Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model and a dynamical ice sheet flow model. This Earth System Model has been shown to be the first global model capable of realistic GrIS SMB simulation. In this project we explore the processes of interaction between the GrIS and local and global climate, focusing on these aspects: 1) interaction between local and global climate and GrIS surface processes (albedo-melt feedback, cloud impacts on the GrIS surface energy budget, effects of a weakened ocean circulation and associated regional climate change on the GrIS SMB); 2) relationship between atmospheric variability and GrIS melt extremes; and 3) interaction between GrIS flow, surface elevation and SMB. To investigate these processes, we will use a) coupled climate-SMB simulations with a fixed GrIS topography under pre-industrial, historical and two different RCP scenarios for the period 1850-2200, and b) two fully coupled climate-SMB-flow multi-century simulations.
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