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Structural changes in retailing have been reflected in a long term change in the geography of retail activity in the UK. A growth of large scale formats in edge- and out-of-town locations over thirty years has been accompanied, more recently, by a rapid expansion in non-store retail sales. While overall retail sales were growing, the impact of these changes on the mix and relative health of shopping provision was to some extent concealed. But from 2008, as overall retail sales fell, the differential geographical impact on sales has become more apparent. In particular, the long term decline in the proportion of overall retail sales which takes place through town and city centres has accelerated. This issue has attracted significant attention from policy-makers. In thinking about the needs of town and city centres, we need to be clear that this is not just an issue of 'town centres versus out of town'. The reality is more complex, not just because town centres differ in their scale, retail mix, quality and character - and therefore degree of vulnerability, but also because the contribution of other drivers, ranging from demographic change, rigidities and inertia in urban commercial property markets, the targeting of town centre shopping schemes, the increasing penetration of non-store sales, and not least the recession, have led to a complex interplay of forces - what one property developer called 'a Rubik's Cube of an issue'. We are not short of rhetoric and opinion on the future of retail places. We are short, however, of rigorous, evidence-driven analysis. This timely project seeks to combine the data resources of the relatively recently-established Local Data Company with the 25 years' experience and academic rigour which characterises the work of the Oxford Institute of Retail Management, based at the University of Oxford's Said Business School, to produce a 'State of UK Retail Places' report. The Local Data Company (LDC) is a UK leader in retail location data and insight, combining field researchers and bespoke software. LDC surveys each retail premise every 26 weeks, tracking who is opening and who is closing; the history of each premise; and exactly where the 45,000 vacant retail units in the UK are located. The Oxford Institute of Retail Management has a track record of producing The project seeks to produce the first in what could be a series of annual analyses of UK retail geography. In particular, the project will explore the changing character of retail places and consider the continued relevance of 'hierarchies' of centres; develop measures of vulnerability and resilience for places; look at short term change as well as considering what UK retail places might look like in five years time given what we know about present trends and drivers. A subsidiary output will be the development of a data set which will have the potential to act as a Town 'Tool Kit' that will enable retail places to better understand how they are evolving against national trends.
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