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Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Authors: Tamsin L. Edwards; Sophie Nowicki; Ben Marzeion; Regine Hock; Heiko Goelzer; Helene Seroussi; Nicolas C. Jourdain; +77 Authors

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2–8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning

Countries
United States, Belgium, France, Germany, United Kingdom, France, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Belgium, United Kingdom, Austria, Germany
Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Coastal flood Sea level geography geography.geographical_feature_category Global warming Glacier Snow Current (stream) Sea level rise Climatology Environmental science Ice sheet

Keywords

General Science & Technology, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, G1, Taverne, SDG 13 - Climate Action, General, Multidisciplinary, G Geography (General), DAS, Glaciologie, Climate Action, Earth Sciences, Sciences exactes et naturelles

45 references, page 1 of 5

Oppenheimer, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds. Portner, H. O. et al.) (2019).

Nowicki, S. M. J. et al. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 9, 4521-4545 (2016). [OpenAIRE]

Nowicki, S. et al. Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models. The Cryosphere, 14, 2331-2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14- 2331-2020, 2020.

Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development 9, 1937-1958 (2016). [OpenAIRE]

Hock, R. et al. GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier massbalance models and projections. Journal of Glaciology 65, 453-467 (2019).

https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22 Goelzer, H. et al. Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison. The Cryosphere 12, 1433-1460 (2018).

Seroussi, H. et al. initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6. The Cryosphere 13, 1441-1471 (2019). [OpenAIRE]

Marzeion, B. et al. Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change. Earth's Future, 8(7), e2019EF001470 (2020).

Climatic Change 109, 5-31 (2011).

Slater, D. A. et al. Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting. The Cryosphere 13, 2489-2509 (2019). [OpenAIRE]

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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AKA| The impact of Antarctic Ice Sheet - Southern Ocean interactions on marine ice sheet stability and ocean circulation/ Consortium: COLD, ARC| Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR140300001
Project
  • Funder: Australian Research Council (ARC) (ARC)
  • Project Code: SR140300001
  • Funding stream: Special Research Initiative (Antarctic) ; Special Research Initiatives
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EC| ERA-PLANET
Project
ERA-PLANET
The European network for observing our changing planet
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 689443
  • Funding stream: H2020 | ERA-NET-Cofund
Validated by funder | sysimport:crosswalk:repository
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NSF| The Management and Operation of the National Center for Atmoshperic Research (NCAR)
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  • Funder: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Project Code: 1852977
  • Funding stream: Directorate for Geosciences | Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
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