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Forest are complex social-ecological systems that deliver many contributions to humans and other species. Yet, like most ecosystems on Earth, French forests are increasingly impacted by on-going climate change, which alters their structure, biodiversity and functioning and threatens their renewal. Their sensitivity, and by extension the sensitivity of their contributions, is expected to increase in the next decades. At the same time, there is an increasing demand for the decarbonization of the economy, with a strong demand for forest products and services. As a result, forests are now facing a key challenge: how promoting their ability of carbon sequestration without impacting the other contributions to people, while taking into account their vulnerability to climate change? FISSA will bring elements to answer this question, by simulating forest’s contributions according to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), under both climate change and management scenarios. More precisely, FISSA will aim at assessing the effect of different forest management scenarios and several climate scenarios on forests contributions, and analyzing trade-offs and synergies between contributions within a socio-ecological framework. In FISSA we will thus test how the regionalization of the different forest management changes the balance between the vulnerability to climate change impacts and its mitigation, how the level of management intensification could also threaten other forest contributions to people, and whether tree diversity may improve the resilience of forests socio-ecosystems and their contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation. To do so, FISSA will rely on the close interaction between the outcomes of sociological analyses and cutting-edge forest models simulations, to provide insights at both local and national levels. First, we will analyze the expectations of the various actors of forest social-ecological systems and consider how they may influence the orientations of forest policies, to establish relevant forest management scenarios and strategies at national and local levels to be used in models simulations (WP1). FISSA will actually focus on three complementary spatial scales: pilot-sites, secondary sites, and national level. Second, we will couple complementary process-based models of forest dynamics and functioning to obtain a tool to provide predictions of forest composition and structure, forest productivity and health, and soil carbon storage. (WP2) at the scale of France and for a set of local sites for which particular stakes are identified in WP1. Third, we will predict how different climate change and management scenarios will affect forest contributions, with a special focus on carbon sequestration (WP3). Simulation outputs will be analyzed under the socio-ecological angle within the framework of the United Nations’ SDGs as well as national policies. They will then be shared with the actors to collect their perceptions and expectations, and – if needed – lead to a revision of management scenarios (WP3). Targeting both basic scientific questions and key applied-science issues, FISSA will benefit from a strong multidisciplinary consortium, including both scientific and non-academic partners, with strong potential for transfer actions. This project will tackle issues corresponding to a strong demand by public policies in Europe and in France, as well as key applied-science issues with strong link to socio-economic and cultural fields. Therefore FISSA aims at disseminating as largely as possible its results, especially to decision-makers and forest actors.
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